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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 101116
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO 22N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W
OF 77W. SEAS IN THIS REGION RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 FT. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW N
ATLC TO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
AHEAD OF IT LATER TODAY. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN LEADING TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...PULSING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 05N09W TO 04N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 01N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
00N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W AND W OF 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

A SURFACE RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SW N ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE
RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF BY A 1027 MB HIGH THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO OVER NORTH CENTRAL WATERS BY EARLY THU.
FRESH TO STRONG NW WIND COVERS THE BASIN E OF 90W AS WELL AS
LOUISIANA ADJACENT WATERS N OF 25N. LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE
FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AND IS FORECAST TO EXPAND TO EASTERN
WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE BROAD LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC MOVES NE...THUS REDUCING THE PRES
GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...      

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS AND ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 20N77W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG
18N82W TO WESTERN HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
SW TO EASTERN JAMAICA TO COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS. SHALLOW
MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE FRONTS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT SUPPORT
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO BETWEEN THE FRONTS S OF 19N. FRESH
TO STRONG TRADES ARE AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE-FORCE BY EARLY
THU MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SE AND WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER
TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. 

HISPANIOLA...                                          

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
CLOUDINESS IS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN HAITI AS A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...POSSIBLY ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL MERGE WITH THIS FRONT LATER TODAY AND WILL
STALL THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE.
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING AND THU
NIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO
22N76W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 77W. SEAS IN THIS
REGION RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BELOW GALE-FORCE BY EARLY THU MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. TO
THE E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 20N73W THEN
INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN
BOTH BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN E OF 65W...ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE FRI. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS