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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 171038
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

HURRICANE EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 35.1N 55.4W AT 17/0900 UTC OR 
ABOUT 500 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 959 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST 
THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING ON THURSDAY.  
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO LOSE HURRICANE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-37N BETWEEN 53W-58W. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
17N35W...ACROSS THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 8N37W AND MOVES WEST AT 15-
20 KT. BOTH METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY 
INDICATE INTRUSION OF SAHARAN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM WHICH IS 
LIMITING CONVECTION. MAINLY MODERATE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SYSTEM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED COINCIDING 
WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 32W-37W AND 
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 34W-38W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS WITHIN 284 NM E-NE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N55W TO 12N57W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. 
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN REGION 
OF THE WAVE FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 53W-58W. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE 
FROM ALOFT HINDERS DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE IN THE WAVE 
ENVIRONMENT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
12N30W TO 10N44W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N44W TO 8N54W TO 
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
4N-13N E OF 23W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...  

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL 
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO 
NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. 
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALONG WITH 
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 88W AS WELL AS N OF 24N E OF 88W. 
ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ANOTHER REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 22N92W TO 17N93W.  
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF DIMINISHED TO 
1015 MB NEAR 26N90W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH STARTED TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF 
WATERS THIS MORNING. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER PENINSULA AND ADJACENT 
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE S-
SE CONUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS DURING 
THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...         

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
NE BASIN BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N 
BETWEEN 71W-83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAILS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND 
PUERTO RICO ADJACENT WATERS. STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL 
SHEAR INHIBITS CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...A RELAXED 
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TRADES OF 10-15 KT ACROSS 
THE BASIN. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI AND THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEING SUPPORTED BY ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE IN THE REGION AS WELL AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT. RAINSHOWERS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THU NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL 
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING TO 
NORTHERN FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST OF THE TROUGH...A BROAD MIDDLE-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANCHORED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W. 
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC WHICH 
ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 26N W OF 74W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND TSTMS MOVED FROM HISPANIOLA TO NE ADJACENT WATERS 
NEAR 19N-22N BETWEEN 67W-71W. OTHERWISE...BESIDES THE TWO 
TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE WAVES SECTION...SURFACE RIDGING 
AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 17-Sep-2014 10:39:07 UTC