000
AXNT20 KNHC 231753
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure, 1008 mb, is 
analyzed near 28N34W with an occlusion and then trailing cold 
front wrapping around it through 28N35W to 32N34W to 30N27W to 
21N30W and to 15N40W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 
possible N of 25N within 60 nm NE of the front. A Gale Warning is
in effect for the waters N of 28N between 34W and 38W. Large seas
up to 15 to 17 ft will accompany the gale winds, with a large 
surrounding area of fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 ft or 
greater. The low will gradually weaken during the next couple of 
days as it shifts SSW. Gale conditions will diminish this 
afternoon, then fresh to strong winds will diminish early Thu. 
Seas will finally subside to less than 8 ft by early Fri. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more details.

Potential for Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola and Nearshore Waters: 
A persistent surface trough extends from 25N65W to the Mona 
Passage. This feature, coupled with moist trade wind flow and an 
upper-level moisture plume may support heavy rainfall and 
thunderstorms for Puerto Rico and the Hispaniola nearshore 
waters region Thursday through Friday. Please refer to the local 
weather service offices for more details on this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes to the coast near the border of Guinea 
and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, extending southwestward to 03N17W. 
The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 03S30W to just off the coast of 
northern Brazil at 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 04S to the equator between 25W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the SE U.S. dominates the Gulf of Mexico, 
supporting mainly moderate easterly winds across the basin. A 
surface trough stretching N to S across the Bay of Campeche 
supporting an area of thunderstorms 90 nm north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula. Seas south of 27N remain 4 to 6 ft, while seas north 
of 27N are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support mainly 
gentle to moderate E winds in the NE half of the Gulf, and 
moderate to fresh SE winds in the SW half of the Gulf through 
Thu. The pressure gradient will further tighten over the Gulf by 
the end of the week, increasing E to SE winds to fresh to strong 
across the whole basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails over the basin supporting 
mainly gentle to moderate trades, locally fresh S of 13N and E 
of 78W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the S-central and SE waters, and 2 
to 4 ft elsewhere, except 1 to 3 ft in the NW Caribbean. A 
surface trough extends through the Mona Passage with nearby 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

For the forecast, as high pressure builds in behind a late 
season cold front over the SW Atlantic, the trades will 
strengthen to fresh to locally strong just north of Colombia, 
through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba Wed and 
Thu. Looking ahead, further building of the high on Fri and Sat 
will also force fresh to strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras 
and just south of Hispaniola. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on Gale 
Warning in the central Atlantic near 31N35W and the potential 
for heavy rainfall for the Hispaniola region.

A cold front extends from 31N67W to the NE coast of Cuba. A 
recent scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong southerly flow 
ahead of the cold front north of 28N and moderate to fresh 
northerly flow following the front north of 25N. Seas of 6 to 10 
ft remain north of 25N and west of 67W. Seas up to 8 ft are 
forecast within the Gulf Stream between the Bahamas and the east 
coast of Florida for the remainder of today. 

The surface trough reaching the Mona Passage mentioned in the 
special features section continues to support nearby scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Away from the low discussed 
in the Special Features section, ridging dominates the remainder 
of the waters W of 35W with mainly moderate trades. Seas are 
mainly 4 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft N of 20N between 55W and ahead 
of the front. E of 35W and away from the low, mainly light to 
gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail, except moderate winds N 
of 10N west of Africa to 20W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from 31N61W 
to the SE Bahamas by tomorrow morning, becoming stationary on 
Thu and Fri while transitioning to a trough. Fresh to strong 
winds on either side of the front north of 29N will diminish 
tonight, leaving the area with quiescent conditions through Fri 
morning. Looking ahead, a new cold front will merge with the 
trough and progress eastward, reaching 31N57W to Hispaniola on Sat
morning. A building Bermuda High should then cause widespread 
fresh to strong N to E winds west of the front beginning on Fri 
night.

$$
Mora