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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300554
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01N17W TO 03S27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS 
AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S35W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 
THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 23W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH 
CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N78W. 
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE SW TO A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER OF 
1027 MB JUST S OF APALACHICOLA NEAR 29N85W. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC 
WINDS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE NE GULF. 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
BASIN. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF TONIGHT. FAIR 
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC A FEW 
HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE US EAST COAST. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NW ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS S OF THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SW N ATLC TO THE TURKS 
AND CAICOS WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
CROSSES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W TO 19N77W. A SHEAR LINE 
CONTINUES W OF 19N77 TO NEAR 17N87W. E TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 
KT ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. E TO NE WINDS 
OF 15 KT ARE JUST S OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE. THE COMBINATION 
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEAR LINE AND 
THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 77W AND INLAND OVER 
THE YUCATAN AND BELIZE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH DRY AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE IS PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE SHEAR 
LINE WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THIS MORNING. 

HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
OCCURRING OVER THE ISLAND MAINLY W OF 70W AS A STATIONARY FRONT 
REMAINS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDS TO 25N65W 
TO 21N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE 
TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SECONDARY TROUGH 
BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDS 32N63W TO 28N67W. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE 
BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N42W TO 20N40W AND IS INTERACTING WITH 
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. THE COLD FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

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Page last modified: Monday, 30-Mar-2015 05:54:30 UTC