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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 211148
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19N95W. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TOWARD FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 22N IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 26N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 
94W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE 
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 30N84W 28N90W 25N97W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF GUATEMALA.THE CHANCE OF THIS 
FEATURE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS IS MEDIUM. 

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS 
LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II...AT 21/1015 UTC...FOR THE 
SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...IRVING...AND IN MADEIRA TO THE WEST 
OF MADEIRA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE 
WMO HEADER FOR THIS FORECAST BY METEO-FRANCE IS FQNT50 LFPW. THE 
WEB ADDRESS FOR METEO-FRANCE IS WWW.METEO.FR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 16N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 
16N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF 
GUINEA AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 10N20W TO 8N30W 7N40W AND 10N48W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N 
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 25W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO 
ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF 
OF MEXICO. 

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KOPM...KBBF...
KGRY...AND KIPN.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE 
U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING HAS FORMED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN 
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG 
HAS BEEN REPORTED AT PERRY FLORIDA. FORT MYERS FLORIDA IS 
REPORTING A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N 
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 81W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING 
HISPANIOLA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST/COASTAL WATERS OF  
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD FROM 77W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE EXTREME 
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...IN SURFACE-
TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN 
CURACAO. 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS SOUTHERN 
PANAMA NEAR 7N81W...AND BEYOND 8N84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO... 
AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 74W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PASSING 
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST 
OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N63W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW IS PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND 
FLOW IS RELATED TO A 68W/69W RIDGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
ISOLATED MODERATE REMAINS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF 
HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...ARE BEING REPORTED AT OBSERVING SITES THAT 
ARE AROUND THE ISLAND.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL PUSH 
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 
500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA. 
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN 
EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

THE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 24 HOURS AGO 
HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST 
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 
24N65W...TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS WITHIN 250 NM 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W 21N74W. A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N58W TO 29N69W 29N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N NORTHWARD 
BETWEEN 58W AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE NORTHERN 
COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 27N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W...TO 
A WEAKENING 29N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N55W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W...TO 29N55W...TO A 1012 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N55W...TO 25N55W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N 
TO 32N BETWEEN 49W AND 55W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 24N 
BETWEEN 43W AND 44W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N48W...ARE 
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 20N43W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 22N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER 
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 24N 
BETWEEN 56W AND 68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED 
MODERATE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. 

BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CENTERED NEAR 9N43W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 43W AND 
44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 
6N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 33N24W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N 
NORTHWARD...BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 
THAT REACHES 31N11W AT ITS SOUTHERNMOST POINT. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 29N 
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 17W AND 27W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Oct-2014 11:48:48 UTC