000
AXNT20 KNHC 251802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall In Hispaniola: A persistent surface trough 
extends from near 25N65W southwestward to Puerto Rico. The moist 
and unstable environment and the additional ingredient of a very 
moist southwest to west flow aloft is favorable for the 
development of numerous showers and strong thunderstorms over 
and near Hispaniola through Friday. This activity is capable of 
producing heavy downpours, increasing the chance for flash 
flooding, especially in hilly terrains and low-lying areas.
Please refer to local weather service offices for more details 
on this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through 07N12W and extends to 
02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 03N30W to 01N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 21W and 
25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb centered over the Florida Big Bend is 
allowing for light to gentle winds over the eastern part of the 
Gulf today, and for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds 
over most of the western part of the Gulf.  Seas are in the 3 to 
5 ft range, except for slighter higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over 
the west-central and southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the high pressure of 1021 mb centered over the 
NE Gulf near 29N87W will maintain light to gentle winds over that
part of the Gulf today, and for moderate to fresh southeast winds
over most of the western part of the Gulf. The pressure gradient 
will tighten over the Gulf beginning tonight resulting in 
increasing east to southeast fresh to strong winds over just 
about the entire basin through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 
ft in the NW Gulf on Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the 
period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the 
potential for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola.

Western Atlantic high pressure extends south over the 
northwestern part of the Caribbean. The pressure gradient 
between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the 
southern section of the basin allows for fresh to strong winds 
to exist in the south-central Caribbean to along the coast of 
Colombia. Fresh northeast winds are in the lee of Cuba, in the 
Windward Passage and just south of the Dominican Republic. 
Moderate trade winds are elsewhere over the basin. Seas are 3 to 
5 ft across the basin, except for offshore Colombia where seas 
are 6 to 8 ft. 

A surface trough stretching across Panama is supporting numerous 
moderate to scattered strong convection south of 10N offshore 
the coast of Colombia and over Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure will maintain fresh to strong 
winds just north of Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and in
the lee of Cuba through this morning. Looking ahead, 
strengthening of the high pressure beginning late Fri will also 
force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of 
Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early 
next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for details about the 
potential for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola.

A stationary front is analyzed from 31N58W to 25N65W. A persistent
surface trough, responsible for the potential heavy rainfall over
Hispaniola, extends from just south of the front to across Puerto
Rico. Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 
south of 22N and over the Dominican Republic. On the east side of 
these boundaries, moderate to fresh trades prevail, where seas are
5 to 7 ft. On the west side, including over the Bahamas, moderate
NW winds prevail where seas are 5 to 7 ft with highest seas west 
of 74W.

The Gale Warning related to the low pressure in the eastern 
Atlantic has ended. The 1011 mb low is located near 22N37W. 
Fresh to strong NE winds were recorded by a recent ASCAT pass 
north of 37N between 35W and 38W. Another area of fresh to 
strong NW winds is north of the low, north of 26N between 25W 
and 40W. Peak seas to 12 ft are near 22N38W. 8 to 10 ft combined 
seas are from 20N to 31N between 36W and 45W. Moderate or weaker 
winds NE winds are over the remainder of the basin along with 
generally moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front 
will weaken to a trough by this evening. A cold front is forecast
to merge with the trough and progress eastward, reaching from 
near 31N57W to eastern Cuba early Sat morning, from near 25N55W to
Hispaniola early Sun, then stall and weaken into a trough over 
the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell 
behind the front will build seas over most of the area northeast 
of the Bahamas by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of 
the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds 
behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, these 
winds are expected to be at mainly fresh speeds south of 29N and 
west of 60W. At that time, fresh to strong west to northwest winds
are expected over the far northeast forecast waters along with 
building seas.

$$
Mora