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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290544
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 01N31W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
02N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 31W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE BASIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLANTIC. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN 
U.S. AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS 
LOCATED NEAR 33N83W AND 40N80W. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP 
LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTS STABILITY AND FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. SLIGHT TO GENTLE E WINDS PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY E OF 90W WHILE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW 
SE WINDS W OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE 
SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL. A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN BY EARLY FRIDAY 
ENHANCING CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N74W TO 10N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 50 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. SLIGHT TO GENTLE  
NORTHERLY FLOW IS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE GENTLE 
TRADES DOMINATE E OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO 
AFFECTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE BUT SHOWERS 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE DAY.

...HISPANIOLA... 

A STATIONARY FRONT SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED 
CONVECTION. EXPECT FOR THIS FRONT TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 
PAIR OF FRONTS. THE FIRST IS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 
22N78W TO 32N64W. THE SECOND ONE IS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N70W TO 32N61W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 
20N BETWEEN 56W-69W. THE REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS 
DEPICTED AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N37W TO 25N40W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 35W-41W. TO 
THE E...SURFACE RIDGING SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE E 
ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 38N29W. A 
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT IN 
THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC...WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS A FRESH BREEZE FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 
34W-40W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE THE COLD FRONT 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT THIS 
MORNING ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Thursday, 29-Jan-2015 05:44:45 UTC