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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 252345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 
20N26W TO 10N27W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A 
VERY DRY AFRICAN DUST AREA IS N OF 16N. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 12N55W TO 
7N57W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THIS LOW AMPLITUDE HAS A VERY DRY 
AFRICAN DUST AREA N OF 12N AND W OF 47W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-62W. 

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 18N73W TO 
11N74W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE INCLUDES REMNANTS OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION TWO. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH AND A 
850 MB VORTICITY MAX. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AT 12N16W 
TO 10N20W TO 9N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 9N35W TO 9N55W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL 
WAVE AT 8N58W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 8N60W. BESIDES 
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 12W-21W....AND FROM 
7N-10N BETWEEN 26W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 26N87W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE 
GULF. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER 
FLORIDA...THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...AND OVER S TEXAS N OF BROWNSVILLE. RADAR IMAGERY 
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE E GULF FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 83W-
85W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
GULF NEAR 24N84W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS 
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL OVER THE GULF. ALSO EXPECT 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH 
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. 10-25 
KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 
RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 70W-80W. 25 KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N AND W OF 82W ON 
THE OTHER HAND HAS A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
AND ONLY 10 KT WINDS. AIR MASS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E CUBA... HAITI...JAMAICA... 
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND N GUATEMALA. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 
15N72W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR 14N58W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W TO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION. 
EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ESPECIALLY S OF 
15N. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE TO ADVECT CONVECTION TO 
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND N VENEZUELA COAST. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                

PRESENTLY HAITI HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION. EXPECT A DECREASE OF CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE FULL PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. 
THE USUAL AIR MASS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR CONVECTION ARE STILL 
POSSIBLE HOWEVER. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF 
FLORIDA N OF FORT PIERCE AND W OF 79W. A LARGE 1025 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N62W. DIFFLUENCE W OF 
THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 
65W-70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Friday, 25-Jul-2014 23:45:20 UTC