Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...                                      
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 
13.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS 
ARE GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG 
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 45W 
FROM 5N TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 12N. ENHANCED METEOSAT 
IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 
43W AND 48W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SURROUNDING ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 54W FROM 6N 
TO 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
DEEP HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS NORTH OF 12N. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 52W AND 
56W. THIS CONVECTION IS PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SURROUNDING ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 82W/83W 
FROM 10N TO 19N MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 14N20W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 07N44W...THEN RESUMES W OF THE CENTRAL ATLC 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N47W TO 08N53W...THEN RESUMES AGAIN W OF THE 
WESTERN ATLC WAVE NEAR 8N56W TO THE S AMERICA COAST NEAR 09N62W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN 28N AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...     
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF NEAR 23N87W WITH 
THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY 
TO THE NE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER 
LEVEL FEATURES AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SUPPORTS 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 28N TO THE N GULF 
COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TX GULF 
COAST. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF S OF 27N. S 
TO SW WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT COVER THE GULF N OF 27N...WITH THE 
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. EXPECT 
CONVECTION TO DECREASE OVER THE NE GULF TONIGHT WITH MAINLY 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON 
MONDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N AND W OF 85W OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE 
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. ENHANCED 
METEOSAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
IS COVERED IN A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH DUST. THIS...COMBINED 
WITH DRY AIR AND SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS 
PORTION OF THE BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES 
OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT FROM 10N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 63W AND 82W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE 
SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS 
THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC ERODES FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF 
AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING WINDS BELOW 
GALE FORCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY. 
EXPECT CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TODAY 
THROUGH MONDAY. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST ARE OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. CANNOT RULE 
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE INLAND MOUNTAINS THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...FAIR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST MAY BRING AN 
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BY LATE MONDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE CAROLINA COASTS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS RIDGE SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. AN UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR 27N69W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N57W TO 25N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W. A 1029 MB 
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N41W ANCHORS SURFACE RIDGING THAT COVERS 
THE MAJORITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. TWO TROPICAL 
WAVES ARE OVER THE TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.                         

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
LATTO


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Jul-2015 17:46:41 UTC