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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 190533
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
NONE. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N17W TO 4N22W WHERE THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 2W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.  
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N 
BETWEEN 18W-27W WITH LARGER CLUSTERS FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 33W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM AN 
UPPER LOW OVER S ALABAMA TO OVER THE GULF AMPLIFYING AN UPPER 
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1011 MB 
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N84W WITH A COLD 
FRONT TRAILING ALONG 25N85W TO OVER THE N YUCATAN NEAR 21N88W. A 
WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO OVER SE GEORGIA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 
23N84W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS. LOW WILL MOVE INLAND 
OVER FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF BY 
SAT AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS SUN 
THROUGH WED. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. THE EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N E OF 67W TO 
OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA ALONG 15N70W TO 17N80W 
COVERING THE LESSER ANTILLES...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO 
RICO...AND E CUBA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO 
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH 
SAT.THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUN AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW 
MOVES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AND THEN NE ACROSS THE NW ATLC 
THROUGH WED. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER 
HISPANIOLA INCLUDING THE GULF OF GONAVE AND THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING 
HISPANIOLA WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC 
PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 
32N78W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 
32N26W ALONG 28N31W TO 27N37W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY 
OF THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH ABOUT 
550 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC NEAR 
26N23W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AS THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW 
MOVES INTO THE AREA SAT EVENING THEN N OF THE AREA SUN. THE COLD 
FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL EXTEND 31N76W THROUGH 27N76W TO 
22N74W SUN EVENING AND FROM 31N70W THROUGH 27N70W TO 22N71W MON 
EVENING THEN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY TUE EVENING. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW



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Page last modified: Saturday, 19-Apr-2014 05:33:48 UTC