Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 042306 RRA

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
605 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

Very broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over the central North Atlc waters supporting a cold
front analyzed from 32N41W SW to near the SE Bahamas. The front
is generating near gale to gale force SW winds N of 30N east of
the front to 39W. The near gale to gale force conditions are
expected to persist through late Monday. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
04N14W to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 05N18W to 06N24W to 04N35W to 05N41W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 06W-12W...and from the
Equator to 03N between 30W-39W.


Southwesterly flow aloft prevails ahead of an approaching upper
level trough and vigorous middle level low noted on water vapor
imagery over northern Mexico and portions of western Texas. This
upper level feature is continuing to support a developing and
complex area of lower pressure across northern Mexico...the NW
Gulf and north-central Gulf waters. A stationary front extends
from a 1011 mb low centered near Mobile Bay SW into a 1010 mb low
centered near 28N95W S-SW to the Mexico coast near 22N97W.
Scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring NW
of a line from Mobile Bay near 30N88W to 24N96W...including
interior portions of eastern Texas...Louisiana...Mississippi...and
Alabama. Otherwise...a few widely scattered showers and tstms are
occurring across the SE Gulf waters in association with low-level
convergence and upper level diffluence S of 24N between 82W-88W.
Generally gentle to moderate SE winds are anticipated SE of the
front through Monday with fresh to occasional strong N-NE winds
expected N and W of the front. The front is expected to remain
relatively stationary through Monday morning. Thereafter...
cyclogenesis is expected to occur across the NW Gulf waters in the
vicinity of Corpus Christi Texas with the associated cold front
emerging off the Texas coast by afternoon. The front will quickly
move across the basin through Tuesday night into Wednesday and
stall across the central Florida peninsula and SE Gulf waters.

An upper level ridge remains centered over the SW Caribbean
influencing much of the basin with axis extending from 11N82W to
23N80W. Water vapor imagery indicates relatively dry and stable
air aloft in association with the ridging however low-level
moisture convergence along with a favorable middle to upper level
diffluent environment is providing focus for scattered showers
and widely scattered tstms within 180 nm either side of a line
from 12N78W to the western Yucatan Channel region near 22N85W.
Isolated showers and tstms are also occurring across portions of
Central America S of 13N due to the close proximity of the Monsoon
Trough axis along 09N/10N. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades
prevail and are expected to persist through Tuesday.

Currently isolated showers linger across the island and the
adjacent Caribbean Sea waters. This generally lower level
moisture and cloudiness remains beneath an upper level ridge
anchored over the SW Caribbean Sea near 11N82W. Water vapor
imagery indicates a relatively dry and stable environment
persists aloft.

Generally W-NW flow aloft prevails to 50W...with the special
features cold front extending into the discussion area near
32N41W SW to the SE Bahamas near 23N73W. Widely scattered showers
and isolated tstms are noted within 120 nm either side of the
front E of 50W...and within 75 nm either side of the front W of
50W. To the SE...a surface trough is analyzed from Puerto Rico
NE to the cold front near 26N54W. Within a weakness between
ridging across the central Atlc and the SW North Atlc...isolated
showers and tstms are occurring within 150 nm either side of the
boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern and central
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1017
mb high centered near 23N31W. Within the southwestern periphery
of the ridge...an upper level trough axis extends from 23N41W to
a broad base in the deep tropics near 14N49W. Southwesterly flow
aloft is generating a large area of cloudiness and precipitation
extends from 06N-23N between 30W-47W. A surface trough analyzed
from 10N47W to 20N44W is providing low-level focus for the more
intense convection in the vicinity of 12N45W.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine


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Page last modified: Sunday, 04-Dec-2016 23:06:17 UTC