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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 232335
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING 
FROM 09N31W TO 03N32W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY 
SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 08N WITH THE WAVE WHILE 
DRIER AIR PREVAILS N OF 08N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 29N-36W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT 
POINT TO 05N30W THEN RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N35W 
TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 
18W-28W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                       

AN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. A   
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 23N95W 
TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS 
ACROSS TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE OFFSHORE 
AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N AND W OF 94W. ANOTHER AREA OF 
CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOME OF THESE 
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE WATERS E OF 93W. A BROAD AREA OF 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING 
SW REACHING THE GULF. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT CONTINUES CENTERED ACROSS THE E 
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG DEEP LAYER 
WIND SHEAR AND AN UPPER-LEVEL NW FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. 
DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COMBINED TO GENERATE 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES THAT 
COULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. A LIGHT TO 
GENTLE NE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS MOST OF 
THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W-
79W. OVER THIS AREA...MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE DEPICTED. A 
SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND THIS 
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY 
IS EXPECTED WITHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N69W AND 
EXTENDS TO 28N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS 
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC  
NEAR 26N59W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-
26N BETWEEN 56W-60W. TO THE E OF THIS CONVECTION...A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 27N48W. A BROAD 1038 MB SURFACE 
HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AZORES EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH 
FAIR WEATHER. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS DEPICTED IN 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATION ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC E OF 
50W WHILE A LIGHT E FLOW PREVAILS W OF 50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO 
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-May-2015 23:35:21 UTC