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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 230606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 
9N13W TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 5N30W TO 
5N40W TO THE COAST OF NE BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 17W AND 
27W AS WELL AS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS 
TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE 
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N67W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE 
SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE E-NE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE 
RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N85W TO 
25N86W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A 
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG WITH 
INFLOWS OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT 
SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N E OF 91W. A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE...THE SURFACE TROUGH 
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA 
TO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS E-SE WIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT E OF 88W. A 
MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF 23N WEST OF 88W PROVIDES FOR 
E-SE WIND FLOW OF 15 KT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING 
ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A 
SQUALL LINE ALONG 28N96W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W AND THE 
TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N96W TO 28N91W. THESE 
FEATURES COINCIDES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE 
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED 
FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE CONVECTION 
IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. 
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE 
AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 

PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER 
BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO 
AND HISPANIOLA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. 
FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT 
PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS 
WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING 
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO 
DRIFT WESTWARD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL 
ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N47W SW TO 26N57W 
TO 24N70W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE 
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM E OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 26N...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 
160 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SURFACE RIDGING 
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. THE RIDGE OVER 
THE NW ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE EASTERN ATLC WHERE IT 
WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Nov-2014 06:06:49 UTC