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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...                                      
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N 
BETWEEN 73W-78W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED 
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE 
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N38W 
TO 5N40W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN 
SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 
5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW 
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 46W-52W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 77W/78W 
FROM OVER JAMAICA TO 11N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS 
TRAILING A SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED 
DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 18N16W ALONG 11N20W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 7N31W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N38W THEN 
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 6N41W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE 
NEAR 7N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A STRONG SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-88W. AN 
UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN TONIGHT EXTENDING 
FROM NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N90W 
TO THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND 
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 30N TO 
JUST S OF NAPLES. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR 
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE W GULF LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP 
CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER 
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC 
ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W TO NE TEXAS. THIS 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN 
DUST COVERS THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL 
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR BUT HAZY SKIES AGAIN 
TONIGHT. A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN 
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING. 
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE 
BASIN THROUGH THE SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E 
CARIBBEAN MON. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THIS WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH MON WHEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD 
RETURN TUE AND WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 31N79W ENHANCING THE 
ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO 
THE E CENTERED NEAR 27N70W. MOST OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN 
E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 
33N42W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N53W TO ACROSS 
FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AND EXTENDS FROM 27N54W TO 
24N55W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR 
SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ TO 24N/25N INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Jul-2015 05:45:05 UTC