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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 060548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT WED MAY 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO 
04N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
04N21W TO 03N27W TO 03N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 
08W-12W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 15W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 16W-20W...AND FROM 02N-04N 
BETWEEN 26W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE 
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. WEST OF THE AXIS...WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 
FLOW PREVAILS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING HOLDS 
ACROSS BASIN PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS. LOOKING 
AHEAD...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD 
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED IN THE SW NORTH 
ATLC REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GULF HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 
MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
RELAXES SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WEST OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS...DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW PREVAILS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NW 
AND SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGHING AND 
AREAS N OF 18N E OF 82W...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
MAXIMIZED GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 
18N BETWEEN 76W-83W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CUBA. WHILE MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS MOVED 
NORTH OF THE BASIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE LINGERING 
ACTIVITY PROVIDES THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING 
AND A POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA. OTHERWISE...THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIR 
ALOFT WITH OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL 
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE 
TO BE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES E OF 80W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED 
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF 
THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...                                        
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION 
PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS 
NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS EVENING. 
RECENT OBSERVATIONS...BUOYS...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE A 1017 
MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W 
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 31N75W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 
21N-32N W OF 67W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD 
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT 
TRACKS NORTHWARD. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY 
OF 37N30W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N28W SW TO 
25N40W TO 24N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 32N15W TO 27N22W TO 23N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 06-May-2015 05:48:18 UTC