Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 011147
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 10N33W 
TO 3N34W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE 
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS 
CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N51W TO 
9N53W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 13N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N21W 7N27W TO E OF THE 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N32W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
NEAR 6N36W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N 
BETWEEN 34W-47W.  

...DISCUSSION...                                              

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF AND IS ANCHORED NEAR 
25N90W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC 
ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB LOW OVER TAMPA BAY CONTINUING ALONG 
27N85W 27N90W THEN DISSIPATING TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA/TEXAS 
NEAR THE BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N TO 
THE FRONT BETWEEN 90W-94W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING INLAND OVER 
PORTIONS OF W LOUISIANA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDS TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-93W AND 
WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 93W-95W. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE 
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NE AND EXITS THE GULF BY THU 
NIGHT. THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF WILL BE A STRONG COLD 
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE OFF THE TEXAS COAST FRI MORNING AND WILL 
EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST FRI 
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E ACROSS CUBA 
THEN INTO THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W 
TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER 
FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 79W-84W. THE UPPER 
TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 13N-17N W OF 80W TO OVER NE NICARAGUA...N HONDURAS...AND IN 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENTS ALONG 10N FROM 
COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER 
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER 
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN 
THU EVENING REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY FRI EVENING. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                             
SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND REMAIN CLEAR AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE 
UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE 
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN IS GIVING THE ISLAND NE FLOW 
ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRI WHEN THE 
FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEAVY 
RAIN...BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD STILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME 
HEATING THROUGH EARLY FRI. TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE 
ISLAND EARLY SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS 
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 26N65W. A NARROW SHORTWAVE UPPER 
TROUGH DIPS S OVER THE NW ATLC THROUGH 32N74W TO 26N73W 
SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 32N72W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
ALONG 30N73W TO 28N78W BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES 
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 29N71W TO 
25N74W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ON THE N SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 
THE FRONT W OF 70W AND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 65W-70W. A SECOND 
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 
32N59W TO 24N60W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E ANCHORED NEAR 
27N54W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF LINE FROM 26N68W 27N58W TO 32N55W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 
FROM 23N55W TO 28N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 22N56W TO 16N57W. THE AREA 
BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W IS 
EXPERIENCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 
FROM 17N55W TO 21N54W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER 
OF THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM 31N65W TO 28N68W TO 
NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY THU AND STALL BETWEEN 27N-28N EARLY FRI 
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Oct-2014 11:47:38 UTC