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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301756
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N32W TO 10N31W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LARGELY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS AND 
COINCIDES WITH A GLOBAL MODEL INDICATED 700 MB JET MAXIMUM TO 
THE EAST OF THE AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF 06N30W. AN INCREASE IN 
MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TPW THAT DEVIATES NORTH AND SOUTH OF 
THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 01N TO 07N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N68W TO 18N69W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF A 700 MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN 
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR 
ACROSS THE WAVE WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OCCURRING IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
10N TO 19N BETWEEN 61W AND 75W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 
07N20W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N19W TO 04N31W TO 03N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 15W AND 
29W...AND FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 39W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   

WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM THE EASTERN GULF SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO HAVE 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS. 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ONE SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY WELL 
INLAND OVER TEXAS. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION MAY MOVE OFFSHORE 
LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
50 NM OF THE COASTLINE OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER...SUPPORTED 
BY THE SHORTWAVE. DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
THE EASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM 29N85W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF FROM 23N93W TO 
18N93W...MOVING WESTWARD. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN 
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. EAST TO 
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER THE NORTHERN GULF. EASTERLY 
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE UPPER TROUGH 
OVER THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH WILL 
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO CUBA 
BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. DEEP MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED AROUND 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN 
SUPPORTS A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 
13N BETWEEN 75W TO 80W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OBSERVED 
UNDER THIS REGION OF HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA 
TO 75W OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR 
MORE DETAILS. TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE BASIN. 

...HISPANIOLA...            

DEEP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE 
ISLAND IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS 
CURRENTLY PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THESE 
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH 
ATLC NEAR 31N65W THAT SUPPORTS A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
27N69W WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO 29N66W 
AND SW FROM THE LOW TO 24N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 70 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 53W AND 
67W. A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N49W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC WITH GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. 
EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW 
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THESE FEATURES 
DISSIPATE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO

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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-May-2015 17:57:03 UTC