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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 282320
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS AT ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 
EXTENDING FROM 14N58W TO 07N59W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT DURING 
THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND IN 
THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 52W-
59W. LATEST SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE ZONE AT MID AND LOW LEVELS. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS WAVE TO APPROACH THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 05N20W. FROM THIS POINT...THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 04N34W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 
02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
03N-07N BETWEEN 14W-35W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. 
TO THE E...A PAIR OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE OBSERVED OVER 
THE E GULF. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDS S FROM THE COAST OF 
MISSISSIPPI WITH AXIS ALONG 89W AND THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS S 
FROM THE N FLORIDA COAST WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SECOND TROUGH 
MAINLY N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-89W. BENIGN WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS  
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
SW GULF FROM 23N95W TO 19N95W. A SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS 
THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...AN 
ANTICYCLONIC LIGHT TO GENTLE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS 
MAY BRING CONVECTION ACROSS NW GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALSO 
REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-84W AFFECTING CUBA...JAMAICA AND 
THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 13N 
AFFECTING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA ALSO. LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ARE 
DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN 
WILL DISSIPATE. THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL 
PERSIST. EXPECT FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION. 

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING SUPPORT SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED 
OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A 
1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS ALONG THIS LOW FROM 30N67W TO 23N69W. ANOTHER WEAK 1016 
MB SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N60W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N31W BETWEEN 53W-63W. A BROAD 1031 
MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOWS TO DISSIPATE AND HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-May-2015 23:20:47 UTC