AXNT20 KNHC 301739
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
139 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical wave extends from 12N28W to 18N31W moving W at 10-15 kt.
A 1010 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis
where global model data indicates a maximum in 850 mb relative
vorticity. The wave itself coincides with a low to mid level
trough extending northward to 18N between 26W-35W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 25W-33W.
Tropical wave extends from 12N53W to 22N52W moving W at 25-30 kt.
The wave coincides with a relatively broad and amplified 700 mb
trough between 48W-60W and copious deep layer moisture noted in
SSMI Total Precipitation Water Vapor Imagery. Recent scatterometer
data also indicates associated surface troughing with a relatively
large area of fresh to strong trades generally from 14N-23N
between 49W-62W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-20N
between 52W-63W...including portions of the Lesser Antilles. As
this wave moves W during the next several days...the strong trades
accompanied by potentially higher gusts will move across the far
northern Caribbean Sea waters and the SW North Atlc waters north
of the Greater Antilles and waters surrounding the Turks and
Caicos...SE Bahamas...and eastern and central Cuba creating
hazardous boating conditions.
The Monsoon Trough extends from 15N17W to 15N23W to 10N31W to
12N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
12N41W to 12N52W. Aside from the convection related to the
tropical waves...widely scattered moderate convection is from
05N-14N between 09W-19W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Divergence aloft on the eastern periphery of upper level trough
axis extending along 98W/99W is enhancing scattered showers and
tstms across the SW Gulf S of 24N W of 94W. This activity is focused
in the vicinity of a surface trough analyzed from 23N96W to
19N97W. In addition...isolated showers and tstms are occurring across
the northern half of the basin N of 26N within broad surface
ridging anchored by a 1018 mb high centered in the E Gulf near
28N85W. Generally light to occasional moderate anticyclonic breeze
conditions prevail...except for locally moderate to fresh winds
near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of
Campeche anticipated to pulse during the evening/overnight hours.
A broad and elongated upper level low extends from over the Turks
and Caicos islands near 21N73W to 13N77W over the central
Caribbean. This is supporting a weak lower to middle level trough
axis analyzed from 12N74W to 17N72W moving across the central
Caribbean with widely scattered showers and tstms occurring from
between 69W-83W...including Hispaniola...Cuba...and Jamaica.
Otherwise...fresh to strong trade winds persist across the central
Caribbean between 70W-80W and the far NE Caribbean N of 16N E of
67W. Finally...an amplified tropical wave currently along 53W
will approach the Lesser Antilles by Saturday night late with
fresh to strong winds accompanying the northern extent of the wave
across the Leeward islands and Puerto Rico through Sunday.
A upper level low currently noted on water vapor imagery over the
Windward Passage continues to support a favorable diffluent
environment over the region resulting in widely scattered showers
and tstms across interior areas of Hispaniola this afternoon and
Aside from the tropical waves moving across the tropical Atlc
portion of the basin...an upper level trough/low is noted on water
vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc near 21N73W providing
increased cloudiness and scattered showers and tstms generally S
of 28N between 70W-80W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is
under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high
centered near 35N46W. To the east...the parent ridge...a 1029 mb
high centered across the NW Azores near 39N31W. Little change is
expected through the next 24 hours.
For additional information please visit