Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 182343

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.


A developing area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen 
offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Its associated cold 
front is expected in 24 hours to to extend into the west North 
Atlantic region generating near gale to gale force west winds 
generally north of 29N and east of front to 60W. See latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 
02N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 02N20W 
to 01N36W to the coast of South America near 02S44W. Isolated 
moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 00W-17W...and S of 
03N between 38W-50W.



A cold front is over the W Gulf of Mexico extending from a 1016 
mb low centered over southern Texas to 28N96W to 24N98W. 
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed 
along the front affecting the Gulf waters north of 25N and west 
of 93W. Scattered moderate convection is inland over E Texas and 
Louisiana producing localized flooding. Mostly fair weather 
prevails over the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data 
depicts gentle to moderate southeasterly winds across the basin 
except west of the front, where moderate northerly winds prevail.
Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from Lake 
Charles Louisiana to Brownsville Texas with convection.   


Mostly fair weather prevails across the basin. Only low-topped 
isolated showers are moving across the whole area as low-level 
moisture is transported by the moderate to fresh trades. A tight 
pressure gradient is supporting an area of fresh to strong 
trades prevail across the central Caribbean mainly between 70W-
80W. Expect in next 24 hours for a surface trough to move over 
the Windward Islands with scattered showers. 


Fresh northeast winds prevail across the island and adjacent 
coastal waters. Winds will diminish slightly through the next 24 
hours as the pressure gradient weakens. Isolated showers are 
possible today as long as the E-NE flow persists.


A cold front is presently over the Carolinas moving southeast 
reaching the western Atlantic waters. Gale-force winds are 
expected to develop over the western Atlantic in advance of this 
front. Please see the section above for details. To the east, a 
1022 mb surface high is centered near 30N41W. A frontal system 
extends south of this high, analyzed as a cold front from 31N31W 
to 26N44W then as a stationary front from that point to 22N56W. 
A surface trough extends from 31N29W to 24N37W. Isolated showers 
are observed along the fronts and trough. Expect over the next 
24 hours for the cold fronts to move east over the Atlantic 
with convection. 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Jan-2017 23:43:19 UTC