Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 172349

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
749 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


A frontal boundary extends from central Florida to the Bay of 
Campeche in the SW Gulf. Strong high pressure west of the front 
supports gale-force northerly winds south of 21N west of 95W. The
front is expected to gradually weaken through Wednesday night 
with winds decreasing below gale-force tonight. See the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/KNHC for 
more details.


A tropical wave extends its axis from 14N56W to 07N57W, moving
west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with troughing at 700 mb 
troughing and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 54W-60W.

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean extending 
its axis from 16N64W to 07N64W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave 
coincides with troughing at 700 mb troughing and a maximum in 850 
mb relative vorticity. At this time, no significant convection is 
related to this feature.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis from
16N81W to 04N81W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides 
with broad 700 mb troughing west of 80W. Scattered moderate to 
strong convection is south of 15N and west of 80W.


The African monsoon trough extends from 09N14W to 08N25W. The 
ITCZ continues from 08N25W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 06N-10N between 37W-50W.



The frontal boundary mentioned in the section above is supported 
aloft by an upper-level trough pushing into the north-central 
Gulf. Scattered showers are occurring along and southeast of the 
front. As of 1800 UTC, the front was analyzed as a cold front over
the eastern Gulf along 26N to 85W, then stationary from that point
to 24N92W to 18N94W. The front will gradually become diffuse 
through Wednesday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
prevail behind the front through early Wednesday and then weaken 
through Thursday. Surface ridging is expected to remain in place 
across the basin through the rest of the week.


Two low amplitude tropical waves are moving across the basin 
See the section above for details. The eastern extension of the 
Pacific monsoon trough is analyzed from 10N83W to 09N76W. An 
upper-level anticyclone centered over the west Caribbean near 
16N81W supports mostly dry air aloft across the region. 
Scatterometer data shows fresh easterly winds in the eastern 
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate easterly winds west of 75W. 


A line of showers is slowly moving over the southwestern portion
of the island. This activity will dissipate overnight. A tropical
wave will move south of the island by Wednesday and Thursday, 
increasing the potential for convection.


A cold front extends across the western Atlantic from 32N70W to 
central Florida. Scattered showers are occurring within 180 nm
to the north of the front. To the east, a surface trough extends 
from a low near 33N67W to 24N72W. This feature is the reflection
of an upper-level trough. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of
the trough. Another surface trough extends from 31N42W to 22N46W. A
broad ridge anchored by 1030 mb high pressure centered near 
33N38W dominates the remainder of the basin.

For additional information please visit 



Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Oct-2017 23:50:05 UTC