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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271158
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 
72.0W...OR ABOUT 370 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA AT 27/1200 UTC. 
PRESENT MOVEMENT OF CRISTOBAL IS NORTHWARD AT 10 KT. THE 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. 
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N TO 33N 
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 28N TO 
30N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 33N TO 36N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 36N64W 32N70W 
25N73W 20N74W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE 
PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 
KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN BERMUDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT THE WIND AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...   

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 23N 
MOVING W AT 10-15KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 21N 
SOUTHWARD MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS LOCATED IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 27W AND 
34W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 20N 
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W. 

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63/64W SOUTH OF 20N 
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NORTH 
TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SOME OF THIS SOUTHERN CONVECTION MAY 
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA 
NEAR 10N14W...TO 8N20W 12N28W AND 12N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
FROM 12N34W TO 12N44W TO 13N52W TO 11N63W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 27W. OTHER CONVECTION IS 
RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION... 

THE GULF OF MEXICO...    

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN 
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS 
THE ENTIRE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS 
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF 88W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA  
...NORTHWESTWARD...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS 
THE SOUTHERN BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 100 NM 
OF THE COAST OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN 10-20 KT IS 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 
UNDER 10KT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.  

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB AND KEMK.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...              

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF HAITI TO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE INVERTED 
TROUGH.

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. SOME 
OF THE WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. SOME OF THE 
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS RELATED TO THE BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW REGIME THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 87W 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. THIS 
CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE 
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF THIS PART OF THE BASIN. OTHER CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD 
ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 
KNHC...WAS 0.10 IN GUADELOUPE AND 1.79 IN TEGUCIGALPA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT...SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FT 
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...     

INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE 
AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND 
WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER 
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE 
CRISTOBAL IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER 
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROPICAL 
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. 

A TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION WILL 
PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE PASSES.  

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W...TO 
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N34W...TO 22N40W TO 
22N49W...TO 18N59W. 

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N24W 
18N59W TROUGH.

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 60W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 
32N47W. 

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF 
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FROM BERMUDA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS.  

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OTHER THAN 
THAT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
CRISTOBAL AND THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
CRISTOBAL.  

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 54W FROM 11N TO 20N WITH 
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 15N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ASL/MT/NR



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 27-Aug-2014 11:58:56 UTC