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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 212355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING 
FROM 17N34W TO 7N36W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW 
SHOWS A MOIST AREA S OF 12 N ALONG THE WAVE. SSMI TPW AND 
METEOSAT SAL IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR WITH EMBEDDED DUST N OF 
13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING S OF 13N BETWEEN 
31W AND 37W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 11N62W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. SSMI 
TPW SHOWS A LARGE MOIST AREA FROM 6N-22N BETWEEN 47W-63W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 8N-19N BETWEEN 54W AND 65W WHICH INCLUDES THE WINDWARD AND 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 22N81W TO 10N81W...MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE IS IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17N16W TO 
A 1009 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 13N24W TO 10N35W 
TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N45W TO 11N59W. OTHER THAN 
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION 
...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 
17W AND 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 7N-14N 
BETWEEN 37W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...  

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 
28N81W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N92W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING 
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 24N 
BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
THE W GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 25N97W TO 18N96W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100 NM 
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY 
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT. OTHER CONVECTION WILL 
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE GULF UNDER THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD 
SHIFTING UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER 
THE N GULF ON TUESDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...      

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL 
WAVES SECTION ABOVE. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROPICAL WAVES...A SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
SUPPORTING A PATCH OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES ARE ASSOCIATED MAINLY 
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER 
ANTILLES WILL SHIFT W WHICH WILL BRING ENHANCED CONVECTION TO 
THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS. 
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE 
YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA MAINLY DUE 
TO DAYTIME LANDMASS HEATING IN A MOIST AIRMASS. EXPECT A 
TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN 24-48 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A 1009 MB LOW S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES 
ARE THE MAIN FEATURES ACROSS THE BASIN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION AND MONSOON/ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 31N73W TO 28N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N77W 
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S AND E OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE STATIONARY 
FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 
27N50W AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-33N 
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH POSSIBLE ONGOING 
CONVECTION IN THOSE LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP SOUTH INTO 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. THE 
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ LATTO



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Page last modified: Sunday, 21-Sep-2014 23:55:22 UTC