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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191805
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CENTER LOCATED NEAR NEAR 19.7N 95.1W AT
19/1800Z AND MOVING WEST AT 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND
NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ABOUT 50 NM EAST OF FAJARDO PUERTO RICO
MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. ITS COMPLETE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 20N63W TO
16N65W TO 11N65W. THE ENVIRONMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
HIGH MULTI-LAYERED MOISTURE AS SHOWN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CONTINUOUS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN REPORTED BY
MOST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SO FAR. AN ENHANCEMENT OF INFRARRED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE EXTENDING FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 58W-67W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 13N30W TO
05N31W MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE METEOSAT-9 SAL TRACKING
PRODUCT SHOWS DRY AIR ENGULFING THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE N OF
09N. THE PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY SHOW A DUST OUTBREAK WITH
DENSE BROWNISH HAZE COVERING THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS
LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 09N OR WITHIN
THE ITCZ.
...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA NEAR 11N15W TO
08N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N23W TO 08N29W. IT RESUMES
WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 08N32W TO 05N47W TO 07N58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N EAST OF 42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AXIS WEST OF 46W.
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N31W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF WHICH IS PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OF 10-15
KT TO MOST OF THE BASIN N OF 23N. A 1017 MB HIGH HAS DEVELOPED
NE OF THE GULF NEAR 26N85W REINFORCING THIS FLOW. FOR THIS
REGION OF THE GULF N OF 23N FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT
ASSISTED BY OVERALL DRY AIR ENVIRONMENT AT LOWER AND MIDDLE
LEVELS. THE MAIN WEATHER OCCURRING IN THE GULF IS ASSOCIATED TO
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WHICH CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19.6N 94.5W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED.
RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE NW GULF.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE CARIBBEAN IS A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 50 NM EAST OF FAJARDO PUERTO RICO.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE W ATLC WHICH EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS ALSO MOVING W-NW IN THE SW
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES
HIGH. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN PRODUCING CONTINUOUS RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS EXTENDING FROM 14N-24N
BETWEEN 58W-67W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WHERE MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT
TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS.
RAINSHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 70 NM N
OF THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA COASTLINES IN ASSOCIATION TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH. TRADEWINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE UP TO 20-
25 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THAT REGION. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE A N-NW TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER LA HISPANIOLA EARLY ON THURSDAY BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE AND
ENHANCING RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE WAVE
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS CUBA.
HISPANIOLA...
CURRENT VERY DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS AS DEPICTED
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS WELL AS A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE HINDERING CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLAND. HOWEVER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL START TO DEGENERATE
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES ITS W-NW
TRACK. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER LA HISPANIOLA EARLY ON
THURSDAY BRINGING HIGH MOISTURE AND ENHANCING
RAINSHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE WAVE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS CUBA
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N43W TO 23N41W WITH NO
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N31W SPREADS OVER
THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 16N. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
$$
RAMOS
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