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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 062359
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N54W TO 14N54W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 
CENTRAL ATLC MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N48W. GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 700 MB 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO 
THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N67W TO 17N65W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 
KT. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN EASTERLY 
700 MB FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN 
60W-73W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT 
THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
10N21W TO 08N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM 08N34W TO 07N46W TO 07N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 31W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N87W. WHILE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS NO TRUE DEEP MOISTURE BASIN-WIDE...VISIBLE IMAGERY 
INDICATES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW TIP OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING 
ACROSS MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE 
SURFACE...RIDGING HOLDS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
30N89W. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL 
AROUND THE RIDGE AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS 
EVENING AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT W OF 80W SHIFTS MORE 
NORTHWESTERLY INTO A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 65W OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY 
CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THIS REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE CONDITIONS IN 
THAT THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING IS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT 
COASTAL WATERS S OF 11N. EVEN WITH THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL 
WAVE 66W...ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS 
EVENING DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL MID-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE PRIME IMPACT ACROSS THE BASIN 
REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...WITH EVEN NEAR 
GALE CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. THE AREA OF STRONGEST TRADES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
BETWEEN 68W-82W THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.

...HISPANIOLA...                                    
CURRENTLY...A FEW LATE EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING DUE TO EARLIER PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY... 
HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS. CONDITIONS ALOFT CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY WITHIN NW FLOW ON 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED TO THE 
NORTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 25N70W. LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE ALSO LIKELY ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE 
CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS EVENING. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE 
SLOW TO MOVE...IT IS LIKELY A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF TODAY FOR 
TUESDAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
AND TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS 
OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W SW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
NEAR 27N81W. AMPLE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 35N74W TO 31N78W TO 27N80W. 
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A FAIRLY 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N70W THAT CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 64W-71W. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND WESTERN 
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N64W. FINALLY...THE EASTERN 
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH 
CENTERED NEAR 33N38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Jul-2015 23:59:23 UTC