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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291732
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL AT 29/1500 UTC IS 
NEAR 45.5N 47.1W...OR ABOUT 261 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE 
RACE IN NEWFOUNDLAND. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 38 
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. THE 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 
KNOTS. THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER 
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. THE 
LAST MARINE FORECAST/ADVISORY ON CRISTOBAL WAS ISSUED UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 46N-50N BETWEEN 40W-
47W. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EXTENDING FROM 
22N16W TO 13N16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON 
THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N16W. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA ALONG THE COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 18W-22W. 
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
21N37W TO 10N39W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 
12N-17N BETWEEN 34W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SE OF 
THE AXIS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 33W-39W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N49W TO 10N50W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF 
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IS N OF 12N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 45W-53W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 20N74W TO 9N76W...MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE MAINLY S OF 18N SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-19N 
BETWEEN 69W-72W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 76W-
83W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
9N22W TO 9N50W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N50W TO TO THE COAST OF 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN 
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 23W-25W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1008 MB LOW 
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E FROM THE 
LOW TO 29N90W TO N FLORIDA AT 30N84W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 
83W-98W. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND 
THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 25N98W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF 
W OF 90W...AND THE NE GULF N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DOMINATING THE 
WEATHER. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W 
ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE 
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W...AND MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT 
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ALSO MOVE W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN 24 
HOURS.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S HISPANIOLA S 
OF 19N BETWEEN 69W-72W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR 
CONVECTION TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...              

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO 29N79W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 67W-80W.    
A 1022MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N54W. A 1021 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N55W. ANOTHER 1023 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N26W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N67W WITH UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER OVER THE N BAHAMAS. ANOTHER 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N35W WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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Page last modified: Friday, 29-Aug-2014 17:32:51 UTC