000
AXNT20 KNHC 191616
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jul 19 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1616 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 35W from 05N 
to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate 
convection is depicted from 07N to 11N between 29W and 37W. 

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 87W south of 
20N to inland central Honduras, western Nicaragua to the eastern 
Pacific near 09N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. No
significant convection is depicted as this time in association
with this wave. 
 
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, then curves 
southwestward passing over the Cabo Verde Islands to 06N44W. The 
ITCZ extends from 06N44W to 06N53W. Aside from convection 
associated to the tropical wave along 35W, numerous moderate 
convection is depicted from 05N to 11N between 37W and 49W. 
Scattered convection is also depicted from 08N to 12N between 19W 
and 26W.
 
...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is supporting scattered
moderate convection south of 22N and west of 94.5W. Scattered
moderate convection is also noted across the central part of the 
basin. Elsewhere, high pressure extends westward from the western
Atlantic across Florida and toward Mexico. This feature controls 
the general wind flow across the Gulf, providing for gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds over the southern Gulf, including the Bay 
of Campeche and Straits of Florida. Seas in these areas are 3 to 5
ft. Light to gentle SE to S winds prevail over the northern Gulf,
with seas 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail 
across the basin through the forecast period producing gentle to 
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to strong NE to
E winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and
evening through early next week as a trough develops inland daily
and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is depicted south of 13N and west 
of 80W in association to the eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon 
Trough. The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high 
pressure and low pressure in Colombia low is currently sustaining 
strong to near gale northeast to east trades and seas of 10 to 15 
ft over the south- central section of the Caribbean. Fresh to 
locally strong northeast winds with seas at 7 to 9 ft are over 
the southwestern part of the basin. Mainly fresh NE to E winds 
are over the north- central sections of the basin, south of Cuba, 
and over the Windward Passage. Seas in these water are 4 to 7 ft. 
Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere with seas 3 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
locate N of area and the Colombian low will support fresh to 
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through early next 
week. Near gale force winds with brief gusts to gale force along 
with rough seas are expected offshore of northern Colombia this 
morning. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough 
seas will prevail in the Windward Passage through tonight. At the 
same time, expect fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds 
will diminish slightly Sun into next week as western Atlantic high
pressure weakens. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The gradient related to a 1029 mb high pressure near 35N42W is 
supporting light to gentle winds with 2 to 3 ft seas north of 26N 
between 60W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Moderate to 
fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the 
waters of the southeastern Bahamas. Otherwise, mostly moderate 
northeast to east winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are over the waters 
from 09N to 31N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northeast winds along with seas of 5
to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the weather 
pattern across the forecast region through early next week. A 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail along with 
moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas 
north of Hispaniola to about 22N, including approaches to the 
Windward Passage, will diminish late tonight. Winds will diminish 
slightly Sun into next week as high pressure weakens over the 
western Atlantic. 

$$
KRV