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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231011
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF 
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 03N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM THAT POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 06N11W TO 03N24W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 27N93W.  AS THERE IS ALMOST NO PRESSURE GRADIENT 
PRESENT...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS 
OR WEAKER.  NO DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE 
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION THAT BROKE OUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST-FACING 
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED.   
THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS...THOUGH WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  THE 
DIURNALLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO WILL CONTINUE...BUT 
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF DURING 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM 
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA TO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON TUESDAY...BUT HAS NOW SINCE 
DISSIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND 
FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA...EASTERN 
BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION... 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE LAST 
SEVERAL HOURS OVER NEAR THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND 
COLOMBIA...DUE TO LAND BREEZES INTERACTING WITH SUBSTANTIAL 
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.  DEEP CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND NORTHERNMOST SOUTH AMERICA DURING AFTERNOONS AND 
EARLY EVENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE. 
THE WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS 
PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE TRADEWINDS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY 
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM 
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA.  THIS 
HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS 
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ALSO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN OCCLUDING GALE-
FORCE LOW OF 993 MB PRESSURE CENTERED AT 40N59W...SEVERAL 
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE TROUGH ENTERS OUR AREA 
AT 32N57W AND EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
TROUGH.  A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SOUTHERLIES 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR POLEWARD 
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PROMOTE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS.  A NEW COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF OF THE U.S. 
ATLANTIC COAST CURRENTLY AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND 
MERGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE TROUGH.  WINDS ON BOTH SIDES 
OF THIS NEW FRONT MAY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA 
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST WITHIN OUR NORTHERN 
BOUNDARY.  THE FEATURE IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N41W TO 
28N33W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO 32N18W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK 
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD 
GRADUALLY FADE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 23-Apr-2014 10:11:29 UTC