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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271000
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the Western coast of Africa earlier this
morning. The wave extends from 07N-20N with axis near 18W,
expected to move at 10 kt within the next 24 hours. Heavy showers
and isolated tstms associated with the wave are from 05N-20N E of
21W.

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic W of the Cape Verde
Islands extending from 09N-19N with axis near 27W, moving at 15
kt within the last 24 hours. Meteosat composite imagery show
Saharan dry air and dust in the northern wave environment.
Moderate moist air from surface to 850 mb and divergent flow in
the middle to upper levels support scattered moderate convection
from 07N-13 between 24W and 30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 09N-17N with axis
near 41W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW
imagery show mainly dry air from the surface to 850 mb associated
with this wave. The dry air is due to the presence of abundant
Saharan dry air and dust, which is hindering convection at the
time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean from 12N-21N with
axis near 71W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is associated with shallow moisture according to CIRA LPW
imagery. Aloft, water vapor imagery show strong subsidence across
the central-southern Caribbean, which is inhibiting convection in
that region of the wave. However, the wave supports scattered to
isolated showers over Hispaniola and its coastal waters.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 15N17W to 11N22W to 10N37W to 08N45W. The ITCZ
begins near 08N45W and continues to the coast of Guyana near
06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves in
the east Atlantic, scattered showers are from 02N-09N between 30W
and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level low covers the NW basin while a broad
upper level inverted trough formerly centered in the W Caribbean
is now in the E Gulf waters, however associated with dry air
subsidence. This dry air is limiting the convection to isolated
showers and tstms E of a line from 28N82W to 22N87W. Moisture
inflow from the Caribbean by SE flow and the low aloft support
scattered to isolated showers N of 22N W of 87W. In the SW Gulf,
a surface trough off the western Yucatan Peninsula support
scattered showers and tstms in the Gulf of Campeche S of 20N.
Otherwise, mainly E-SE moderate wind covers the basin due to weak
surface ridging. The exception is the Bay of Campeche where NE-E
moderate to fresh flow is noticed. Weak surface pressure and
return flow will prevail the next two days.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The short-wave upper trough formerly over the central Caribbean is
now over eastern Cuba, thus supporting isolated showers and tstms
over the Island coastal waters. To the west, the eastern portion
of a broad inverted upper-level trough supports isolated showers
and tstms in the NW Caribbean, including the western Gulf of
Honduras. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough supports heavy showers
and tstms within 90 nm of the coast of northern Panama, Costa
Rica and southern Nicaragua. A tropical wave is moving across the
central Caribbean where it generates scattered to isolated showers
across Hispaniola and adjacent waters. See the tropical waves
section above for further details. Scatterometer data depict fresh
to strong winds in the south-central basin S of 16N and moderate
trades elsewhere. Showers will continue across Hispaniola tonight
as the wave continue to move westward. The next tropical wave will
enter the east Caribbean during the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA... 

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean where it
generates scattered to isolated showers across Hispaniola and
adjacent waters. Convection associated with this wave is expected
to continue through Wednesday evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin and a fourth wave
is over the central Caribbean, but extending to 22N. Please refer
to the tropical waves section for more details. With little
support aloft, a stationary front in the central Atlantic weakens
along 30N56W to 26N62W and support scattered showers from 24N-28N
between 59W and 63W. Surface high pressure is across the
remainder basin being anchored by a 1032 mb high centered N of
the Azores Islands. Expect for the surface ridge to persist
through the next 24 hours and the front to dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS