Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011116
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC N OF 30N W OF A COLD FRONT TO 65W. SEAS BETWEEN 13 AND 
20 FT IN NW TO N SWELL CAN BE EXPECTED. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO 28.5N LATER THIS MORNING AND 
THEN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY 
MORNING OFF OF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST N OF 30N W OF 77W AHEAD 
OF A COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE SE US COAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 
10 TO 13 FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY 
NIGHT E OF THE FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES E ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. 
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION.

CARIBBEAN...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY N OF THE COLOMBIA 
COAST FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. EXPECT SEAS OF 11 
TO 16 FT. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC THIS 
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE BACK TO GALE-FORCE TONIGHT. WINDS 
WILL THEN DECREASE AGAIN BELOW GALE-FORCE BY 1200 UTC MONDAY 
MORNING. SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

GULF OF MEXICO...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP 
TONIGHT NW OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE GULF. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 8 FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO 
THE S GULF DURING THE DAY MONDAY...DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE 
MONDAY NIGHT.  

SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE INFORMATION. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 7N11W TO 5N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
1N25W TO 2N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 11W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ALONG THE SE US 
COAST NEAR 22N78W. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. SE 
FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN BETWEEN 
THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W 
ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL CUBA AND TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT 
OVER CUBA THAT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR 23N83W TO 24N87W WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO THE TX COAST NEAR 
25N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 91W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N AND OUT OF THE GULF. A COLD FRONT 
WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TONIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO 
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO DEEP 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE 
OVER S AMERICA IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTING TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 
KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY 
N OF COLOMBIA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SUPPORTING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 09N TO 20N W OF 
81W...AS WELL AS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND WITHIN 100 
NM S OF THESE ISLANDS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO STALL OUT ACROSS CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO 
TONIGHT WITH ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.

HISPANIOLA... 

PERSISTENT CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A 
COLD FRONT TO THE N OF THE ISLAND IS FORECAST TO BECOME 
STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO 
ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS BOTH HAITI AND 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH TONIGHT.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N54W TO THE TURKS AND 
CAICOS NEAR 21N72W TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. 
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N. SEE 
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM S AND E OF THE FRONTS. ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 22N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N55W TO 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER 
EAST...A 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N35W IS INTERACTING WITH AN 
UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 
30W AND 37W. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SE US OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT OFF THE COAST OF N FL. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO