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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300602
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N19W 15N21W 9N22W. 
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.          

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 19N 
SOUTHWARD. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 37W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W. 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD. 
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
12N27W 8N31W 6N32W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO 
18N82W...AND 13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N 
BETWEEN 75W AND 80W AROUND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... TO 
THE EAST OF THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 23N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO 
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA 
NEAR 9N13W TO 8N24W 9N39W AND 9N49W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
9N49W TO 12N58W AND 11N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N27W 8N31W 6N32W...AND 
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 49W AND 62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL 
TEXAS INTO EAST TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 
86W AND 92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ALSO COVER 
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N75W 
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 29N90W IN THE 
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W/97W FROM 23N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO 
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W. 

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N 
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING 
SITES...KXIH...KGHB...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KVOA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF 
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP 
SOUTH OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN 
WESLACO. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN GALVESTON.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. 
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE 
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED 
IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. 

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT..THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 
88W AND 92W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO 18N82W...AND 
13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 75W AND 
80W AROUND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... TO THE EAST OF 
THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM 19N NORTHWARD IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA.

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W 
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 
30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.36 IN 
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. 

NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 23N80W IN CUBA...TO 
18N82W...AND 13N82W...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. FROM 15N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 71W AND 77W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. S OF 15N 
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND 
SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN FROM 14N TO 18N 
BETWEEN 74W AND 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA... 

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 15N77W... 
TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...MOVING AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE 
AREA FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 25N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN AROUND THE 25N68W CYCLONIC CENTER...ISOLATED MODERATE IN 
THE AREAS OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE 
BEING REPORTED AT THE OBSERVATION SITES THAT ARE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN 
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD 
CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH 
WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE 
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN 
INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF 
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE 
REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN 
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 
36 TO 42 HOURS. A RIDGE EVENTUALLY EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST 
PERIOD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS 
ABOUT...THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM HAITI TO COLOMBIA ALONG 72W... 
MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N 
BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 
75W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                            

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS WELL TO THE NORTH 
OF THE AREA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH 
OF 32N BETWEEN 60W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND  
ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 32N66W BEYOND 33N56W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N37W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N38W AND 22N40W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. 

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N16W TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 29N36W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N46W...TO 27N72W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 
TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-Aug-2014 06:03:01 UTC