Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 230523

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 08N51W to 17N51W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with global model indicated 700 mb troughing
between 43W-55W with a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity along
the wave axis near 11N. Scattered moderate convection is from
05N-15N between 42W-54W. The convection is also enhanced due to an
upper level trough axis extending from 20N50W to 10N55W.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
08N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N18W to 07N35W to 08N40W. Aside from convection associated with
the tropical wave along 51W...scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 04N-13N between 19W-41W. Widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-13N
between 10W-18W.


A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
with axis extending over the SW North Atlc waters with a broad
base over portions of Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea waters. The
troughing supports a cold front analyzed across the Yucatan
Channel from 22N85W to 22N90W then stationary to 22N94W to the
southern Mexico coast near 18N94W. Widely scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring across the SW Gulf waters generally S
of 22N W of 92W in association with the front. Elsewhere...high
pressure remains anchored across the lower Mississippi River
valley focused on a 1022 mb high centered near 32N91W. The ridge
will gradually drift eastward across the SE CONUS through Sunday
night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are expected to persist
through Sunday gradually veering NE to E Sunday late into early
Monday then mostly E on Monday as the ridge shifts eastward.

The base of a middle to upper level trough is noted on water
vapor imagery over Cuba and the NW Caribbean supporting a cold
front analyzed across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. To the
SE...a pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed across the SE
Bahamas and eastern Cuba reaching to 20N78W. Both boundaries
remain mostly precipitation-free with only a few isolated showers
and tstms occurring across Jamaica and the adjacent coastal waters
from 16N-19N between 75W-79W. Overall gentle to moderate N-NE
winds prevail across the NW Caribbean S of the weakening front.
Across the SW Caribbean...the Monsoon Trough axis extends along
09N from Costa Rica eastward across central Panama to northern
Colombia. The axis is providing focus for scattered showers and
isolated strong tstms S of 12N. Elsewhere...the eastern and
central Caribbean are under mostly fair skies this evening with
moderate to fresh trades prevailing. These trades are expected to
persist through Monday.

Currently isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring
across the island as a surface trough is analyzed to the NW across
the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. The boundary is supported aloft
by a middle to upper level trough over the SW North Atlc and
portions of the NW Caribbean Sea. Increased probability of
scattered showers and tstms is expected through Sunday as the
troughing lingers across the region.

A middle to upper level trough is noted over the SW North Atlc
supporting a cold front extending from 32N65W near Bermuda SW to
the central Bahamas then to western Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed from the front near 30N66W to the SE Bahamas then to
eastern Cuba. Isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring
generally east of the boundaries between 61W-71W. W of the cold
front...moderate to occasional fresh N-NW winds filter in across
the SW North Atlc as high pressure anchored itself across the SE
CONUS. Otherwise...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc
currently is under the influence of surface ridging anchored by a
1032 mb high centered N of the discussion area near 40N39W. One
exception is a cold front analyzed from near 32N15W W-SW to 29N26W
to 32N41W. Possible isolated showers are within 90 nm either side
of the front.

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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Oct-2016 05:24:17 UTC