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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 172330
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                   
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 88.4W AT 17/2100 
UTC OR 10 NM NE OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING WNW AT 10 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 86W-
92W...AND FROM 22N-23N BETWEEN 79W-86W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 81W-87W. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N59W TO 6N60W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND HAS LARGELY BEEN EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE ITCZ TRACKING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN 
AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT SPREADS EASTWARD NEAR THE ITCZ 
REGION DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND FROM 5N-9N 
BETWEEN 60W-65W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 47W-59W. IT IS 
ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL TRACK W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
TOWARDS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ABC ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW OVER 
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N15W TO 10N19W 7N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 
7N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N40W 7N57W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23N-
30N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 32W-35W. CONVECTION 
NORTH OF THE WESTWARD PORTION OF THE ITCZ IS DISCUSSED IN THE 
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                         
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N 
CONTINUING INTO THE WEST ATLC. ALOFT...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT 
COVERS THE FAR WESTERN GULF AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE 
WEST...WHILE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE 
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS ALSO OUTFLOW NEAR T.D. TWO. BETWEEN 
THESE TWO UPPER RIDGES IS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR COVERS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR THE SE 
CORNER ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM T.D. TWO. THE DRY AIR IS 
MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH THE AREA. STRONG 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND CUBA SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 79W-
92W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE BASIN. 
T.D. TWO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SW GULF AND WILL 
PROVIDE MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THAT AREA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
T.D. TWO IS PROVIDING MOIST AND WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. 
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
BASIN...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS INTO THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN. BESIDES CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
DEPRESSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N 
BETWEEN 80W-83W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
THROUGH COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW OVER 
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
IS DRAWING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...BUT 
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 
DUST...WHICH IS BEING REPORTED BY MANY STATIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW 
OF 20-25 KT IS PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE BASIN AND CONTINUING NEAR 
THE DEPRESSION. A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY 
BEGIN TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT 
TRACKS WESTWARD INTO THE AREA. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN AS T.D. TWO MOVES WNW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...                                           
HISPANIOLA REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL EXCEPT FOR A FEW WIDELY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONSIDERABLE LESS ACTIVITY IS 
OCCURRING COMPARED TO MOST AFTERNOONS. THIS LIKELY TO DUE TO DRY 
AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST...AND THE PRESENCE 
OF DUST IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY 48 HOURS AS 
MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVES 
INTO THE BASIN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EAST OF NORTHERN 
FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 65W WITH AN 
UPPER LOW NEAR 24N65W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF 
23N BETWEEN 59W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO PRESENT FROM 
32N62W TO 27N67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1034 AZORES HIGH. ALOFT...AN 
UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 54W...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 
45W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A 
SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 34W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE 
FAR EASTERN ATLC ALONG 20W. THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO HAVE 
A BROAD SAHARAN AIR LAYER STRETCHING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 
NEAR 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON