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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic from 09N-19N with axis
near 21W, forecast to move at 15 kt within the next 24 hours. Meteosat
composite imagery show Saharan dry air and dust engulfing the
northern wave environment. A surge of moderate moist air from
surface to 850 mb and divergent flow in the middle to upper levels
support a cluster of moderate to strong convection from 10N-12N
between 18W and 23W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 08N-18N with axis
near 33W, moving west at 10 kt within the last 24 hours. CIRA LPW
imagery show moderate moist from the surface to 850 mb associated
with this wave and global model guidance show a low at 700 mb
coinciding with the wave axis location. Even with a divergent
environment at the upper levels, the presence of Saharan dry air
and dust seems to hinder convection at the time.

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Caribbean from 10N-22N with
axis near 62W, moving west at 20 kt within the last 24 hours. The
wave is associated with shallow moisture, which is is supporting
scattered showers and tstms across the Virgin Islands, eastern
Puerto Rico and adjacent waters. Isolated showers are possible
across the Lesser Antilles.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough begins west of a tropical wave near 12N22W and
continues to 11N33W to 08N46W. The ITCZ begins near 08N46W and
continues to 08N58W. Besides the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between
24W and 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad middle level low centered near 26N91W covers most of the
basin and supports a 1012 mb low over SE Louisiana with an
associated surface trough extending from 28N95W to the low center
near 29N90W to 27N87W. Scatterometer data show S to SW moderate to
fresh winds N of 26N E of the low while surface observations show
moderate to fresh N to NW flow within 90 nm W of the low center.
Instability generated by the middle and surface lows along with
widespread moderate moisture across the basin support scattered
showers N of 23N between 85W and 95W. Clusters of heavy showers
and tstms are in the Yucatan Channel quickly moving W-NW to
northern adjacent waters of the Yucatan Peninsula. Over the
eastern Bay of Campeche, a surface trough support scattered
showers S of 21N. Otherwise, weak surface ridging prevails E of
87W. Expect for the surface low and trough to dissipate within
the next 24 hours. A thermal trough will move off the west coast
of the Yucatan peninsula each evening through midweek.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

An inverted upper-level trough covers the basin W of 75W with an
embedded low just S of Cuba that supports clusters of heavy
showers and tstms over the southern Island coastal waters and
isolated showers and tstms elsewhere in the NW Caribbean,
including the Gulf of Honduras. A shortwave upper trough is
across the central Caribbean where the remnants of a former
surface trough support passing showers across Hispaniola and the
Windward passage. In the SW basin, the monsoon trough support
scattered showers and tstms within 90 nm of the coast of northern
Panama and Costa Rica and isolated showers elsewhere S of 12N. A
tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles where it
generates isolated showers. The wave also support scattered
showers and tstms over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. See the
tropical waves section above. Scatterometer data depict fresh to
strong winds in the south-central basin and moderate trades
elsewhere. Showers will continue across Puerto Rico and will
increase across Hispaniola Tuesday as the wave continue to move
westward.

...HISPANIOLA... 

A shortwave upper trough is across the central Caribbean where
the remnants of a former surface trough support passing showers
across Hispaniola and the Windward passage. Showers will increase
across Hispaniola Tuesday as a tropical wave in the eastern
Caribbean continue to move westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. A surface ridge extends across the
remainder Atlantic waters being anchored by a 1031 mb high
centered N of the Azores Islands. Expect for the surface ridge to
persist through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
RAMOS