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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250003
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO 
25N81W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM AND A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS 
SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 
79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16 
FEET. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TONIGHT. 
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 02N32W WHERE IT BRIEFLY BREAKS DUE TO A SURFACE 
TROUGH...THEN CONTINUES FROM 02N36W TO 01N47W...SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM 07N34W TO 02N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...       

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING HAS BUILT 
ACROSS THE GULF BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH ON THE NW GULF 
NEAR 24N96W. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT COVERS THE BASIN E OF 87W 
WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FT. ELSEWHERE SE OF LINE 
FROM 30N87W TO 20N96W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT IN W TO NW SWELL. COLD DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF SUPPORTING 
FAIR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MODERATE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT OVERCAST SKIES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY. A 
NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY 
MORNING...FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE BASIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...       

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER AND ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO 
25N81W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO 22N82W TO NORTHERN-CENTRAL 
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE FAR WEST 
CARIBBEAN WEST OF FRONT NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEA 
HEIGHTS TO 8 FT. TRADES OF 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80W...EXCEPT 
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WIND INCREASES TO 20 KT. OTHER 
ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDES SCATTERED PATCHES SHALLOW 
MOISTURE ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO...EASTERN HISPANIOLA 
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT IS 
FORECAST TO EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO 1N686W...TRANSITIONING TO A 
STATIONARY FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 21N77W TO 16N86W MONDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 

A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND 
THE EASTERN HISPANIOLA ENHANCING SHOWERS THIS EVENING. THIS 
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH 
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 
WITH DRY AIR WILL HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE 
WEST ON MONDAY...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL 
SHOWER ACTIVITY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 
984 MB CENTER NEAR 39N71W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER...WHICH ENTERS THE SW N ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W 
TO 25N81W WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT 
PATTERN BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT AND A 
RIDGE FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N 
OF CUBA...TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB NEAR 35N51W IS SUPPORTING SW TO W GALE 
FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. EXPECTED SEA HEIGHTS 
IN THIS AREA RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 16 FEET. SEE THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER 
UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N42W SW TO 26N55W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N TO 35W. 
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE E ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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