AXNT20 KNHC 261745
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 25.2N 48.3W at 26/1500
UTC or about 925 nm east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands, and about 965 nm east-southeast of Bermuda, moving
north north-west at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65
kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 25N-28N
between 45W-53W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.
Tropical wave in the far east Tropical Atlantic extends from
17N22W to 05N24W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is embedded
within an area of deep moisture with a 700 mb signature.
Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 21W-26W.
Tropical wave in the central Caribbean south of Jamaica extends
from 19N76W to 07N76W, moving west at 15 kt. A surface trough
has broken away from the wave and extends over the Bahamas and E
Cuba from 25N73W to 19N76W, moving north-west. The wave
coincides with a well defined 700 mb global model trough and is
embedded within an area of deep moisture. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 07N-12N between
74W-79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
over the Bahamas from 20N-24N between 71W-75W.
The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 18N16W to 07N30W to 05N40W where the ITCZ begins
and continues to 10N50W to the coast of South America near
09N61W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical
wave, isolated moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 30W-
GULF OF MEXICO...
Easterly surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico with scattered
moderate convection over the central Gulf from 23N-30N between
84W-94W. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from
21N90W to 17N93W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm
of the trough. In the upper levels, upper level diffluence is
over the central Gulf enhancing the convection. Expect
additional convection to advect over S Florida and the Straits
of Florida over the next 24 hours.
A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above. In
addition, another surface trough is over the western Caribbean
from 20N79W to 15N81W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90
nm of the trough. In the upper levels, an upper level high is
centered over the W Caribbean near 19N85W. Another small upper
level high is centered over the S Bahamas near 22N73W. Expect
the tropical wave, and the trough N of the tropical wave to be
the dominate features over the next 24 hours.
Currently scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over
the island. The heavy convection associated with the tropical
wave is now north-west of the island. Expect more scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours
however, as residual tropical moisture persists.
Scattered moderate convection is N of the Bahamas from 27N-29N
between 75W-80W. Further east, the tail end of a dissipating
quasi-stationary front extends from 31N66W to 28N71W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 27N-33N between 62W-69W. Tropical
Storm Gaston is over the central Atlantic. See above. Further
east, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
23N-26N between 41W-45W due to upper level diffluence. A 1023 mb
high is over the central Atlantic near 33N39W. Expect over the
next 24 hours for the trough N of the tropical wave to move to
the central Bahamas with heavy convection. Expect the
dissipating quasi-stationary front to form into a trough. Also
expect Gaston to continue to move north north-west with
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