| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N WITH 
AXIS NEAR 43W...MOVING W AT 13 TO 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 
HOURS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE 
IMMEDIATE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN A DECREASE OF 
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN REGIONS OF 
THE WAVE WHERE METEOSAT IMAGERY SHOW DUST AND DRY SAHARAN AIR. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 320 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE 
AXIS...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 145 NM E OF IT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 06N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N16W AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 05N27W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 06N41W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ E OF 40W. FOR CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO 
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 
CENTER OF 1032 MB OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO EXTEND A 
RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN 
GULF. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF AND ADVECTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW 
N ATLC WATERS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N-NW GULF COASTLINE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS 
LOUISIANA SW TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 20 NM 
OFF THE COAST. HAZE AND FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED IN THE NW 
GULF N OF 26N W OF 90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA EXTENDING WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE 
COAST. SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE 
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO 
EXTEND S INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THUS 
SUPPORTING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW 
BASIN...RESULTING IN WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 11.5N TO 14.5N 
BETWEEN 72W AND 78W WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE 
FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS 
WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. OTHERWISE...S OF 18N W OF 85W 
E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DOMINATE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. SSMI 
TPW IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NW BASIN 
THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER CUBA COASTAL 
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL 
WATERS OF COLOMBIA...HAITI...THE MONA PASSAGE...EASTERN PUERTO 
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING 
SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE IS OVER HAITI ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR 
THIS REGION OF THE ISLAND. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER ISLAND AS DEPICTED BY SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME 
HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 30N58W CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N52W TO 
23N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 
NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS N OF 24N. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL 
DRIFT TOWARDS THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. SURFACE 
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 26-May-2015 06:03:33 UTC