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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 021029
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. ASSOCIATED SEAS RANGE FROM 9 TO 12 
FT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. 
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 
29W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. METEOSAT ENHANCED IMAGERY CONTINUE TO 
SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IN THE NORTHERN WAVE 
ENVIRONMENT...THUS RESULTING IN NO CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SOUTH 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT WIND 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN SEA. ITS AXIS IS 
NEAR 62W AND MOVES W AT 20 KT WITHIN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE WAVE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NE BASIN 
GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N65W AND THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORT 
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 
60W AND 65W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS NEAR 
89W...MOVING W AT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
MODERATE MOISTURE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER 
HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 15N TO 18N W OF 83W. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 
14N17W TO 12N30W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO 09N53W. ASIDE 
FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N 
TO 18N E OF 22W AND FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...                                        

A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS HAS AN AXIS 
EXTENDING E-SE ACROSS THE N-NW GULF. A TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT WITH A 1009 
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N84W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 
THE LOW W-SW TO 27N90W TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. WITH THE 
BASE OF THE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN 
FLORIDA INTO THE NE BASIN...DIFFLUENCE IS BEING GENERATED. THE 
WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE NE 
BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 25N 
TO 29N E OF 88W. WINDS ARE VARIABLE AND LIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE 
BASIN...EXCEPT THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85.5W WHERE WINDS ARE 
FROM THE SW RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 25 KT. SEAS IN THIS REGION OF 
STRONGEST WINDS ARE LESS THAN 8 FT. BY TOMORROW NIGHT...THE 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND ACROSS THE S-SE CONUS WHILE 
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE BASIN.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
NORTHWARD TO BELIZE. A DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WAVE SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ON HONDURAS 
COASTAL WATERS. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE 
DETAILS. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING GENERATED BY THE RIDGE IN 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W. DRY AIR 
DOMINATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE BASIN AS INDICATED BY SSMI 
TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THIS ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER 
WIND SHEAR HINDER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. A TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILT BETWEEN W ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA SUPPORTING NE TO E WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT 
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE 
FAR E BASIN AND ENHANCES SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE 
NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA MONDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...

SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND AHEAD OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS IS 
RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER AT THE TIME. DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE 
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...      

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 71W 
AND 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 
69W AND FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. SURFACE RIDGING 
DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB 
NEAR 30N56W. FOR TROPICAL WAVES INFORMATION SEE SECTION ABOVE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Aug-2015 10:29:24 UTC