Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 081752

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

A stationary front extends across the NW Gulf waters from 28N90W
to 28N95W to the NW Mexico coast near 25N97W. Strong high pressure
continues building in from the N-NW across the central CONUS
generating a strengthened pressure gradient between the ridging
and a 1014 mb low centered near 25N96W. Near gale to gale force
N-NE winds are occurring generally N of the frontal boundary and
are expected to persist through Saturday W of the front along the
coast of Mexico. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
07N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
07N17W to 04N30W to the Equator near 44W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 11W-36W.


Southwesterly flow aloft prevails between broad longwave
troughing over the CONUS and an upper level anticyclonic
circulation centered over Central America near 15N84W. The
troughing aloft supports two fronts analyzed across the basin
this afternoon. A stationary front lingers across the Straits of
Florida across the Gulf along 24N into a 1014 mb low centered near
25N96W. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally
N of this front W of 84W. The second front is a cold front
analyzed from the central Florida peninsula near 27N82W W to
28N90W then becomes stationary to the NE Mexico coast near 25N98W.
Strong high pressure continues to build across Texas and the SE
CONUS generating the special features near gale to gale force
winds expected through Saturday across the western waters. For
the remainder of the week strong to near gale force NE winds will
prevail as the front eventually moves SE of the basin by Saturday.

Much of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil this afternoon
as water vapor imagery indicates a mostly dry and stable
environment aloft between an upper level anticyclone centered near
15N84W and an upper level low centered near 15N70W. At the
surface...mostly clear skies prevail...however the Monsoon Trough
extends along 10N with scattered showers and isolated tstms
occurring from 08N-13N between 76W-85W. Scattered showers and
tstms are also occurring across the eastern Caribbean and Lesser
Antilles as a surface trough extends from NE Venezuela near 11N63W
to 18N60W. This activity remains E of a line from Anguilla to
Curacao. Otherwise...trade winds remain generally in the moderate
to fresh breeze levels with the exception of the waters off the
coast of Colombia. Fresh to occasional strong trades are expected
to persist through Friday night into Saturday with trades
increasing slightly through the remainder of the weekend as the
pressure gradient across the basin strengthens.

Clear skies prevail this afternoon as dry and stable NE winds
aloft persist due to an upper level cyclone centered near 15N70W.
These fair conditions are expected through the remainder of the
week into the weekend.

Generally westerly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North
Atlc and central Atlc waters W of 50W this afternoon. This is
providing fairly progressive and benign weather pattern across
much of the forecast waters...however a lingering cold front
extends from 32N46W W-SW to 30N60W to 27N74W and becomes
stationary to the Florida Straits near 25N80W. A few isolated
showers are occurring with the front...most notably across the
Florida Straits and NW Bahamas. To the west of this
front...another cold front extends from a 1016 mb low centered
near 34N76W SW to the Florida peninsula near 28N80W. This front
will remain weak through the evening hours and become invigorated
by an arctic front resulting in stronger N-NW winds by Friday
morning N of 30N W of the boundary. Otherwise...over the eastern
Atlc...a middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water
vapor imagery in the vicinity of 27N36W supporting a cold front
extending through 32N26W SW to 28N38W. Isolated showers and tstms
are occurring generally N of 27N between the front and 19W. The
remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence
of a surface ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near
25N59W. The ridge axis extends generally east-west along 24N/25N.

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Page last modified: Thursday, 08-Dec-2016 17:52:26 UTC