000
AXNT20 KNHC 200916
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the border of The Gambia and
Senegal near 13.5N16W to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to
the Equator at 27W to near the coast of Brazil at 02.5N40W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 05N
between 16W and 48W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1019 mb near 27.5N84W dominates the basin early
this morning with light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf and
moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, locally fresh NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the NE half of the basin, 
and 3 to 6 ft across the SW half of the basin. Some reduced 
visibilities in haze are reported in the SW and W-central Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure extending across the basin from 
the western Atlantic will prevail through today, with gentle to 
moderate winds in the NE half of the basin, and moderate to fresh 
in the SW half of the basin. Winds will pulse fresh to strong in 
the evenings NW of the Yucatan Peninsula through at least this 
evening. A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf late 
tonight into early Sun, stalling and dissipating near 23N early 
next week. Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas may 
follow the front through Sun night. High pressure will again 
dominate the basin by Tue and continue into Wed night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure dominates north of the basin. Fresh NE to E winds 
prevail in the Windward Passage and the Lee of Cuba, and fresh to 
strong S of the Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate trades 
prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas prevail across the 
basin, up to 6 ft near the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, broad high pressure N of the basin will support
pulsing fresh to locally strong winds near the Windward Passage, 
S of the Dominican Republic, and near the coast of northern 
Colombia through early Sun. Similar winds will return and pulse 
near northern Colombia Mon evening through Wed evening. Winds will
pulse to moderate to locally fresh in the NW Caribbean through 
early Sun, then again by mid-week. Gentle to moderate trades will 
prevail elsewhere, along with slight to moderate seas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N43W to the Tropical N
Atlantic just E of the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted from 21N to 30N between 47W and
57W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the Atlantic. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the Atlantic, except moderate to
fresh from 11N to 24N between the coast of W central Africa and
35W, locally fresh to strong near the Cabo Verde Islands. Slight
to moderate seas prevail across the tropical Atlantic, highest S
of 20N.

For the forecast, a surface trough from 22N55W to just E of the 
Lesser Antilles will dissipate today. Otherwise, high pressure 
from near Bermuda to E central Florida will prevail through Sun 
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. A cold front is 
forecast to move into the NW waters Sun night, reaching from 
31N72W to near Jupiter, Florida Mon evening, from 31N69W to the 
central Bahamas Tue evening, then from near Bermuda to the SE 
Bahamas Wed evening. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong near 
31N, are forecast to accompany the front, along with building 
seas. Otherwise seas will be mainly slight to moderate.

$$
Lewitsky