Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 290534

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
134 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor
imagery in the vicinity of 32N60W supporting a 1004 mb surface 
low centered near 29N61W. Near gale to gale force winds are 
occurring within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant with 
fresh to strong winds occurring elsewhere primarily within 300 nm
of the NW semicircle of the low and within 420 nm of the E 
quadrant of the low. The low is forecast to move NE through 
Thursday with the near gale to gale force wind area rotating 
around the base of the low. By Thursday night...the low will move
N of the discussion area and be in the process of merging with a
storm force low centered near 42N54W at 970 mb. Please see the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ 
FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 
03N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
03N24W to the Equator near 27W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is S of 07N between the Prime Meridian and 12W.


A middle to upper level ridge prevails over the Gulf this evening
with water vapor imagery indicating a vigorous middle to upper
level low centered over New Mexico and western Texas. At the
surface...a ridge axis extends W-SW from a 1017 mb high centered 
across the east-central Gulf near 27N84W to the Mexico coast near
24N97W with a complex area of low pressure nearly collocated with
the upper level feature across west Texas and New Mexico. Mostly 
fresh to strong SE winds are noted W of 90W and with moderate to 
occasional fresh E-SE winds noted E of 90W. Given the active 
convection across the interior portion of the southern Plains... 
skies remain relatively clear this evening across the Gulf waters.
As the low ejects into the southern Plains fully by Wednesday
afternoon...the associated cold front is forecast to emerge off 
the Texas and Louisiana coasts Thursday morning.

West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin
this evening with mostly dry and stable conditions noted on water
vapor imagery. This stability filters to the surface with most of
the basin under relatively clear skies and fair conditions. One
exception is an area of enhanced cloudiness and possible isolated
showers occurring across the south-central waters from 12N-16N
between 67W-72W. With the Special Features low pressure area 
located N-NE of Puerto Rico...the pressure gradient remains 
fairly weak and results in mostly gentle to moderate trades. This
overall wind pattern is expected to persist through Thursday with
the exception of occasional fresh E-SE winds across the Gulf of 
Honduras. Otherwise...little change is expected through the 
remainder of the week.

Dry and stable air aloft prevails within southwesterly flow
aloft...however a surface trough extends SW from the Special 
Features low pressure area to the NE coast of the island near 
20N69W. Low-level moisture convergence in the vicinity of the 
surface trough is generating isolated showers across the island 
that are expected to persist through late Wednesday. As the low 
pressure area moves NE during the next 24 hours...conditions will
trend drier Wednesday night into Thursday.

The primary focus for the SW North Atlc is the Special Features
low pressure area centered on a 1004 mb low near 29N61W. A warm 
front extends NE then E from the low center to 32N54W to 29N46W 
and provides much of the lift generating scattered showers and 
isolated tstms from 25N-36N between 46W-61W. The remainder of the
SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1017 mb high centered near 29N75W. Farther east across the 
central and eastern Atlc...surface ridging with axis extending 
from near the Madeira Islands near 32N16W to 25N21W to a 1023 mb
high centered near 30N44W.

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Mar-2017 05:34:39 UTC