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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 232357
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Atlantic Gale:  As of 2100 UTC, a broad low pressure system with 
1001 mb central pressure is centered at 28N79W, just east of 
Cape Canaveral.  A 1512 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated 
gale force winds were occurring east of the center.  These gale 
force conditions are expected to continue until 25/1800 UTC. 
See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/Vicinity KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N12W to 
02N19W.  The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
02N19W to the equator near 40W.  Widely scattered moderate 
convection exists within 120 nm of the axis between 20W and 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The broad surface low mentioned in the Special Features section 
is inducing weak northerly winds in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. 
Weak southeasterly return flow has set up in the northwestern 
Gulf, ahead of a cold front expected to reach the Gulf late 
Friday night.  No significant showers or deep convection is 
occurring over the Gulf today.  As little moisture advection is 
likely to occur in the return flow, limited showers are to be 
expected as the front reaches the northwestern Gulf late Friday 
night and stretches from the Florida panhandle to near Tampico 
by Saturday afternoon.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

As 2100 UTC, a cold front from the broad surface low mentioned 
in the Special Features section reaches from eastern Cuba to the 
northwestern Caribbean.  Ahead of the front, a prefrontal trough 
extends from the Windward Passage to the southwestern Caribbean. 
 Scattered showers exist within 60 nm of the trough axis.  Winds 
behind the front are weak westerly with 15-20 kt south to 
southwesterlies along the trough line.  The remainder of the 
Caribbean has weak southeast to east tradewinds.  The prefrontal 
trough and cold front should push eastward only to near 
Hispaniola on Friday before slow dissipating on Saturday. 
Continued scattered showers are expected within 60 nm of the 
trough axis through Saturday.  Winds across the Caribbean should 
be 5-15 kt by Friday through Saturday.

...Hispaniola...

Southerly winds east of the Caribbean prefrontal trough are 
causing numerous showers over Haiti and scattered showers over 
southwestern Dominican Republic.  As the trough and the 
approaching cold front are expected to move only slowly 
eastward, continued scattered to numerous showers are expected 
over Hispaniola through late Friday before beginning to diminish 
on Saturday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 2100 UTC, a broad low pressure system with 1001 mb central 
pressure is centered at 28N79W, just east of Cape Canaveral.  A 
warm front extends east of the center to 27N72W and a cold front 
extends south of the center.  A 1512 UTC ASCAT scatterometer 
pass indicated gale force winds were occurring east of the 
center.  A prefrontal trough extends from 25N72W to the Windward 
Passage.  Scattered moderate convection and numerous showers 
extend from the warm front northward to our border at 32N as 
well as within 60 nm of the prefrontal trough.  The low - at 
quite a low latitude for an extratropical cyclone - is in the 
process of occluding.  The low will move slowly northeastward 
during the occlusion process with winds only gradually 
diminishing.  Continued scattered convection and numerous 
showers are expected to occur in association with the warm 
frontal boundary and prefrontal trough through Saturday.  

Elsewhere a cold front enters the area at 32N43W, extends 
southwestward to 23N50W, becomes a stationary front, and extends 
to 18N65W near the Virgin Islands.  Scattered moderate 
convection and showers are located within 60 nm of the cold 
front and scattered showers are located within 60 nm of the 
stationary front.  20 to 25 kt S winds are located east of the 
cold front.  The cold front should only progress eastward 
through Friday morning before becoming stationary and gradually 
dissipating by Saturday.  The moderate southerly winds and 
convection/showers should diminish on Friday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Landsea