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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 290448
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Mar 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N13W
26N20W 26N27W beyond 31N42W. Very rough seas to high seas, from 
large northerly swell with origins offshore Europe, are to the 
north of the line 31N40W 28N32W 27N27W 28N11W. Some of the highest
sea heights are 22 feet from 31N to 32N between the cold front 
and 33W. This swell event will continue to propagate in the area
on Friday from 50W eastward. Everything will reach 20N by Friday 
afternoon. The seas are forecast to subside to 10 feet to 14 feet
on Friday afternoon. Near gale-force to gale-force westerly winds
are from 28N northward from 20W eastward. Fresh to strong
northerly winds are from the cold front northward between 20W and
45W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 24N northward 
from 40W eastward.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 08N13W, to the Equator along 21W, to 01S25W. The ITCZ 
continues from 01S25W to 02S38W. Precipitation: numerous strong
from 03N to 06N between 03W and 09W. Scattered to numerous strong
is elsewhere from 03N to 09N between 03W and 11W; and from 02N
southward from 07W eastward. Scattered to numerous strong is from
03N southward between 45W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward
from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge passes through south central Louisiana, toward the
coast of Mexico that is near 20N97W. Fresh to strong NE winds are
in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are 
between 90W and 94W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. 
Rough seas are from 27N southward from 90W eastward. Moderate seas
are in much of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. An exception is 
for slight seas in the coastal waters of the U.S.A. from Louisiana
to the middle Texas Gulf coast.

Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE 
Gulf will subside late tonight into Fri as high pressure builds 
across the northern Gulf in the wake of a front currently over the
W Caribbean. The high pressure will shift E and support fresh E 
to SE winds across the western Gulf Sat through Mon. Another cold 
front may enter the western Gulf Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is passing through Cuba along 80W, to the coast of
Honduras that is along 87W. Rough seas are passing through the
SE Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Peninsula, into the NW 
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong northerly winds are 
from the cold front northward. Precipitation: widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is from the central to the NE sections
of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 135 
nm to the east of the cold front.

A first Atlantic Ocean surface trough passes through 23N56W 
18N64W, beyond 31N71W. A second Atlantic Ocean surface trough is
the remnant of an earlier cold front, that is passing through 
20N53W 15N60W, to 13N64W in the SE Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: 
rainshowers are possible from 20N southward from 70W eastward.

Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the remainder 
of the area.

A cold front from W Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will reach from 
eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds 
and rough seas will continue to follow the front across the NW 
Caribbean tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Fri across NW 
portions as the front reaches the the NE coast of Cuba to NE 
Honduras, then weakens from Hispaniola to the Honduras- Nicaragua 
border on Sat. High pressure building north of the region in the 
wake of the front will support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee
of eastern Cuba and across the Windward Passage Fri night through
Sat evening. Winds and seas will then diminish there Sat night. 
Moderate N swell moving through the NE Caribbean Passages and 
adjacent Tropical Atlantic waters will gradually subside through 
early Fri. Strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse off the 
coast of Colombia and the southern coast of Hispaniola this 
weekend as the high pressure settles NE of the Bahamas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT, in the far NE Atlantic Ocean, for the
next 24 hours to 48 hours.

A cold front passes through 31N74W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond Cuba
along 80W, to the coast of Honduras along 87W. Strong to near 
gale-force NW winds, and moderate seas, are from the cold front 
northwestward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
is from 20N northward between 70W and the cold front.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 27N58W. A first surface 
trough curves away from the 1009 mb low pressure center, to 23N56W
18N64W 31N71W. This surface trough marks a separate airmass that 
has been advancing southward with time, around the 1009 mb low 
pressure center. A second surface trough is the remnant of an 
earlier cold front, that is along 30N56W 24N52W 20N53W 15N60W, to 
13N64W in the SE Caribbean Sea. Rough seas to very rough seas are 
from 29N northward between 50W and 60W. Moderate seas to rough 
seas are in much of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 70W 
eastward. Some exceptions are for moderate seas to the south of 
the line 20N63W 20N58W 15N51W 12N44W 14N28W 15N17W. Strong to near
gale-force SE winds are elsewhere from 16N northward between 45W 
and the second surface trough. Mostly moderate to some fresh NW 
winds are between the 1009 mb low pressure center and the western 
edge of the first surface trough. Precipitation: widely scattered 
to scattered moderate, and isolated strong, from 20N northward 
between 39W and 60W. 

Mostly fresh to some moderate NE winds are in the remainder of the
area that is from the second surface trough eastward. 

Broad low pressure SE of Bermuda centered near 27N58W will 
meander then weaken to a trough and move slowly NE and east of 55W
Fri night. Large northerly swell dominates the waters W of 60W 
and will gradually subside through Fri. An area of strong to near 
gale S to SE winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered strong
thunderstorms remains active to the east of a surface trough 
along 53W, N of 20N. Farther west, a cold front has moved off the 
northeast Florida coast. This front will reach from Bermuda to 
eastern Cuba by midday Fri, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by Sat
morning, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and 
rough seas will follow this front, then diminish from west to east
as high pressure build eastward along roughly 29N, and settle NE 
of the Bahamas Sun and Mon.

$$
mt/era