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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 010606


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.


Hurricane Matthew is centered near 13.3N 72.3W at 01/0300 UTC or
about 70 nm NW of Punta Gallinas Colombia and about 382 nm SE of
Kingston Jamaica moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 941 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with
gusts to 170 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 11N-15N
between 69W-74W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from
10N-17N between 67W-76W. See latest NHC Intermediate Public
Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the
full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24
KNHC for more details.


A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1011
mb low near 13N33W to 20N33W, moving W at 15-20 kt over the past
24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable deep layer wind
shear and in a region of middle level diffluence. However, the
TPW and CIRA LPW imagery show dry air intrusion W of the wave
axis. Meteosat enhanced imagery confirm the presence of Saharan
dry air and dust in the wave environment, which is inhibiting convection
at the time.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from a 1010
mb low near 14N50W to 22N52W, moving WNW at 10-15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of unfavorable deep layer
wind shear and Saharan dry air and dust is observed mainly W of
its axis. Low level moisture and middle level diffluence support
scattered showers and isolated tstms from 11N to 22N between 42W
and 52W. 


The Monsoon Trough extends from 09N14W to a 1011 mb low near 13N33W
to 07N35W. The ITCZ begins near 07N35W and continues to 06N45W.
For information about convection see the tropical waves section



A broad deep layered low is centered over Indiana with troughing
dipping southward over the eastern Gulf and a portion of the NW
basin. The upper trough supports a stationary front extending
across the northern Florida peninsula to 28N83W to 25N90W to
22N96W. The base of the upper trough extends S to Honduras and
generates a diffluent environment over the far SE basin to support
scattered showers and isolated tstms across the Florida Straits
and the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers are occurring across
the SW Gulf generally S of the front W of 94W due in part to a
diffluent environment aloft between the troughing and an upper
level anticyclone centered S of the Baja California Peninsula. Clear
skies prevail N of the frontal boundary as a surface ridge remains
anchored across the central plains. The front is expected to
gradually become diffuse through Sunday with light to gentle E-NE
winds expected as ridging slides eastward to the N across the SE


The main concern in the basin is Hurricane Matthew located in the
south-central Caribbean. See the special features section for
details. An upper level ridge covers much of the Caribbean E of
80W while the base of an upper level trough extends from the
Florida Straits to over Honduras. The upper level trough is
supports isolated showers across the NW Caribbean with stronger
convection occurring across inland portions of northern Belize and
the southern Yucatan peninsula. Across the SW Caribbean...the
Monsoon Trough axis extends along Costa Rica to northern Colombia
and provides focus for scattered showers and tstms S of 14N. Otherwise,
as Matthew tracks N-NW across the central Caribbean through
Monday, the trades will continue to be disrupted. Trades will
begin to re-establish from east to west starting Wednesday through
early next weekend.


High level cloudiness associated with Hurricane Matthew in the
south-central Caribbean continue to cover the Island. Isolated
showers are likely occurring over the eastern Dominican Republic
and SW Haiti as well as the Windward Passage. Matthew is expected
to track W through Saturday night before making a turn toward the
NW then north late in the weekend. Heavy showers are expected
across the Island from Sunday night through Wednesday when the
cyclone will be moving across the northern Bahamas.


The deep layered trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico extends
over the far western portions of the SW North Atlc west of 76W
supporting a stationary front extending from 31N81W to 28N82W then across
the Gulf of Mexico waters to 22N96W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms prevails N of 22N W of 70W being supported by the
trough aloft. The remainder of the Atlc is under the influence of
a surface ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high near the Azores. The
surface ridging is expected to persist through the weekend as
Matthew moves through the Caribbean Sea. Then as Matthew begins
its northward track...the ridge will shift east as Matthew moves
into the SW North Atlc by early Tuesday.

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