Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 232211

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
611 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N14W to 
03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N20W to 
03S30W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ axis between 22W and 26W 
and east of 33W.



A weakening stationary front extends from the Fort Myers Florida 
area near 26N82W to New Orleans near 30N89W. Fresh to strong 
easterly winds are north of this front. Gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds are observed by buoys and satellite derived data 
across the Gulf. Seas are around 2 to 4 ft in the western Gulf, 
and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms 
are noted at this time. Over the next 24 hours the front will 
dissipate, as strong high pressure over the eastern United States
spreads fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the Gulf 
tonight into Friday.


Dry air subsident air associated with a broad upper trough is  
inhibiting thunderstorm activity over the northwest Caribbean
today. A trough north of Hispaniola is keeping the pressure
gradient light across the eastern and central Caribbean, keeping
winds relatively light. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted
from the Mona Passage to Anegada Passage, near the base of the
surface trough. Elsewhere, divergence aloft on the southeast side
of the upper trough is supporting thunderstorms over northern 
South America, although limited low level convergence is keeping 
the eastern and central Caribbean relatively free of significant 
convection. The pressure gradient between the trough north of
Hispaniola and high pressure farther north is resulting in
moderate to fresh northeast winds through the Windward Passage.
These winds will increase through tonight as the high pressure
builds, with moderate to fresh winds farther west over the
northwest Caribbean. Elsewhere, little change is expected.


A surface trough north of Hispaniola is supporting showers and a
few thunderstorms over the northern slopes of the higher terrain
across central Hispaniola, mainly in the Dominican Republic
through late evening. A cold front will approach the region 
Friday. Strong high pressure will build north of the area this 
weekend with strong easterly winds expected over the island, and 
large swell along the Atlantic coastline. 


A cold front extends from 31N61W to south Florida near 26N80W. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the front.
A pre-frontal trough reaches from 30N56W southwestward toward 
Hispaniola. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are north of 20N and west of 55W. The cold front
will shift to the southeast over the next 24 hours reaching from
30N52W to the northern Bahamas, then moving into the central
Atlantic and reaching from 30N45W to 25N60W and with a weakening
trailing end into the central Bahamas. High pressure centered 
near the Azores dominates the central and eastern Atlantic with 
moderate to fresh trade winds. 

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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Mar-2017 22:11:35 UTC