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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
WITH AXIS NEAR 24W. A SATELLITE HOVEMOLLER DIAGRAM INDICATE THE 
WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SSMI TPW 
IMAGERY SHOW ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 200 
NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS WHERE IT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION. ENHANCEMENTS OF METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW DRY 
AIR AND DUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WHERE A LACK OF CONVECTION IS 
NOTICED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 19N WITH AXIS 
NEAR 60W...MOVING W AT 15 KT DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SSMI TPW 
IMAGERY SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS AND ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN. A SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
16N TO 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 61W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. FURTHER CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED 
IN PART BY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE 
TROPICAL ATLC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 06N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF A TROPICAL 
WAVE NEAR 04N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG 03N40W TO THE NORTHERN 
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 02N TO 09N E OF 15W. A 
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 
05N W OF 48W. FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SEE THE SECTION ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS MEXICO AND EXTENDS SE TO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 
22N90W TO 15N93W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. BROAD 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY TWO 1030 MB 
CENTERS CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA AND INTO THE REMAINDER GULF. OVER THE FAR EASTERN 
GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH 
WITH AXIS FROM 31N85W TO 25N84W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW. STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT HAS DECREASED 
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE BASIN FROM THE ATLC 
AND THE CARIBBEAN...THUS FAVORING STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 
10 TO 15 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE 
GULF...EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
AND ALONG THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 
20 KT DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO ADVECTION FROM 
NORTHERN SOUTHERN AMERICA AND THE E PAC WATERS. THE SE BASIN IS 
BEING MOISTEN BY UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM NORTHERN SOUTH 
AMERICA AND BY A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. 
THE MOISTURE ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE 
SW BASIN S OF 15N. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-NW BASIN THAT 
ALONG WITH PATCHES OF MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT 
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA...CUBA 
AND ADJACENT WATERS. MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE 
EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE 
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY. FAIR 
WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM 
ALOFT.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW ALOFT OVER 
THE SW N ATLC ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT 
WATERS. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST THROUGH LATER THIS 
MORNING...RESUMING AGAIN TONIGHT AS MOISTURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT 
INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E 
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED NEAR 28N60W CONTINUE TO 
ENHANCE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 
26N BETWEEN 51W AND 62W. NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS A 
1015 MB LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 25N68W WITH SURFACE TROUGH FROM 
27N66W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE LOW 
CENTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE QUADRANT. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE 
LATER TODAY AND THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W OVER THE SW 
N ATLC THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE 
ATLC...ONE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ANOTHER OVER THE EASTERN 
BASIN W OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION 
ABOVE. ELSEWHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER 
PREVAILS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
LATER TODAY. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Friday, 29-May-2015 10:46:46 UTC