Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 240524

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1223 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0445 UTC.

A partially occluded 1000 mb low is centered near 33N32W with the
associated cold front entering the discussion area near 32N29W
extending SW to 28N33W then W-NW to 30N42W. Near gale to gale
force N-NW winds are occurring generally N of 29N W of the front
to 38W and are expected to persist through Friday morning and
gradually diminish as the cold front weakens across the eastern
Atlc waters. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/ 
WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 
05N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N23W to
06N54W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N 
between 03W-13W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-12N 
between 16W-34W.


A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery 
over the basin with axis extending from over southern Georgia 
near 32N83W to a base over the SW Gulf near 19N93W. This 
troughing supports a 1009 mb low centered in the vicinity of the
Tampa Bay region near 28N82W and the associated cold front
extending SW to the Yucatan peninsula near 20N89W. Gentle to
moderate N winds prevail this evening across much of the basin
with widely scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring S of
27N E of 87W...including portions of the Florida peninsula and
Florida Straits. The low will move NE and into the SW North Atlc 
region by Friday as the front continues across the Florida 
peninsula and SE Gulf waters clearing east of the basin by 

A surface trough extends from 09N76W to 16N79W with scattered 
showers and tstms occurring between 75W-84W. This activity extends
farther south across Costa Rica and Panama as the monsoon trough
axis extends along 08N. Most of this convection is supported aloft
by overall divergent southwesterly flow aloft between a middle to
upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and a middle to upper
level ridge anchored over the eastern Caribbean near 16N67W. 
Otherwise...mainly gentle to moderate trades are occurring E of 
78W. Little change is expected through Sunday night.

Isolated showers are possible across western portions of the 
island this evening as more active convection lies across eastern
Cuba and the waters surrounding Jamaica in association with a 
favorable divergent environment within southwesterly flow aloft.

A stationary front enters the SW North Atlc region near 32N66W 
and extends westward to 31N78W then SW into a 1009 mb low centered
in the vicinity of the Tampa Bay region. The middle to upper level
trough supporting the low remains over much of the Gulf of
Mexico...a favorable divergent environment remains over much of
the SW North Atlc generating scattered showers and tstms generally
W of 68W. The low is expected to move into the SW North Atlc
waters by Friday with persistent precipitation and convection
expected E of the cold front extending southward from the low.
Farther east...a gradually weakening 1008 mb low is centered near
33N60W with the associated cold front extending from the low to
28N65W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring E of the low
from 31N-35N between 48W-58W. Otherwise...the remainder of the
eastern Atlc is under the influence of the Special Features 1000
mb low centered near 33N32W. While the near gale to gale force
conditions are associated with the secondary wave of energy behind
a cold front...the remnant cold front extends from 30N22W to
21N39W with scattered showers and tstms occurring from 120 nm
either side of the front N of 25N.

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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Nov-2017 05:24:16 UTC