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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 031053
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                          
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT CURRENTLY FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 
74W AND 77W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. THE GALE-FORCE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD IN THE 03/0600 
UTC FORECAST. THE SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 10 FEET 
TO 15 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ 
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 17N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 
17W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER 
TO BE ALONG 39W/40W BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 
50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 15N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W FROM 19N 
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITH BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 
18N BETWEEN 58W AND 70W.

ONE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 
19N SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERN 
PART OF THE WAVE IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS... 
NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. 

A SECOND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 
90W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 
GUATEMALA...AND BEYOND EL SALVADOR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE WAVE. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
SPANS THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...FROM 20N 
NORTHWARD.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 
7N30W AND 7N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 12N 
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA TO A 22N91W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS JUST 
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY REMNANT RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA 
FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA TO 23N BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE AROUND LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA...AND IN THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...TOWARD AND BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE 
THAT RUNS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL HISPANIOLA...TO THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. 

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS MUCH OF THE 
ENTIRE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MORE PROMINENTLY...FROM 10N 
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 78W 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA...SOUTHWESTWARD... 
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THREE TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER 
TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS 
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH 
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 
HISPANIOLA. EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB...COVERS 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE 
WIND DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AND FINALLY 
TO WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LAST FEW 6-HOUR TIME 
INTERVALS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL 
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE 
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL 
MOVE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GIVING 
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN 
SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB 
SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE SECOND 
HALF OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY 
SETTLING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 
30N67W...TO A 26N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM  
FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 28N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 22N TO 31N 
BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 
30N30W...TO A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
34N48W...31N62W...BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Jul-2015 10:53:26 UTC