Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 172319

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
619 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


A deepening low pressure is currently moving southeast from the 
mid Atlantic states is dragging a strong cold front that will
extend through the waters north of 27N between 64W and 75W by 
Thursday morning. Gale force southwesterly winds are likely to 
develop ahead of the front as it pushes southeast across the area.
These conditions are expected to continue through Friday. Please 
refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 
03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 03N19W 
to 02S39W. Isolated showers are observed within 50 nm on either 
side of the ITCZ.



A surface ridge remains in place over the basin, with axis
extending from the Yucatan peninsula to the western tip of the 
Florida panhandle. A cold front extends across the coast of Texas
enhancing convection across this area affecting the northwest Gulf
mainly north of 28N and west of 92W. Scatterometer data depicts
a moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. Latest guidance 
suggests that a strong short wave will support the cold front 
making it move across the Gulf waters on Thursday. Strong 
thunderstorms are possible along the front as it pushes eastward.


A quiet weather pattern persists across the Caribbean basin. 
Water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper-level 
trough from la Mona Passage to northern Colombia. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin except
between 69W-79W where fresh to strong northeasterly winds prevail. 
Visible satellite imagery shows isolated trade wind showers across
the basin. Similar weather conditions are forecast through the
next 24 hours. Winds will diminish a bit as a strong low pressure
heading southeast from the east coast of the United States 
weakens the ridge north of the Caribbean.


Fresh to strong northeast winds prevail across the island and the
adjacent coastal waters. These conditions will continue through 
Thursday, then a decrease is expected on Friday as the ridging to
the north weakens. Isolated showers are forecast to continue 
through Friday as the northeast flow persists.


A broad 1025 mb surface high centered off the mid-Atlantic coast 
near 32N68W is generally maintaining fresh to strong trade winds 
south of 23N and west of 53W. A cold front enters the discussion 
area near 31N38W and extends southwest to 24N62W then becomes a 
weakening boundary to 24N67W. Isolated showers are occurring 
along the front as noted in visible satellite imagery. Farther 
east, a surface trough extends from 29N31W to 19N37W. Isolated 
showers are seen along the trough. Another surface trough was
analyzed just north of Guyana extending from 12N55W to 07N57W.
Abundant cloudiness and isolated showers are observed with this
trough affecting the waters between 50W-60W. Expect for gale force
winds to develop in the west Atlantic within the next 30-36 hours
as a cold front approaches. Please refer to the section above for

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jan-2017 23:19:22 UTC