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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 282341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


A tropical wave extends its axis from 17N23W to 05N23W moving W
at 20 kt. The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between
20W-25W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a result,
no significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at
this time.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 19N46W to 05N42W moving W
at 15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 40W-
50W and remains embedded within Saharan dust. Isolated
convection prevails along the southern portion of the wave where
the ITCZ is present mainly S of 06N. 

A tropical wave is approaching the Windward Islands with axis
extending from 17N59W to 06N59W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave
coincides with 700 mb troughing between 55W-60W. Scattered
moderate convection prevail across the southern portion of the
wave S of 12N between 59W-64W.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 13N16W to
06N29W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N29W
to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between



A stationary 1016 mb surface high is centered over the NE Gulf
near 27N85W. To the E, a surface trough extends from the western
Caribbean, across W Cuba and into the eastern Gulf from 23N83W
to 26N82W. Isolated convection is observed along this trough. A
diffluent flow aloft prevails across the Gulf States supporting
scattered moderate convection along their coastlines which is
slowly entering the northern Gulf waters mainly N of 28N between
89W-96W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle
anticyclonic across the basin. This overall synoptic pattern is
anticipated through the remainder of the week.


A surface trough extends across the western Caribbean from
22N84Wto 18N83W with isolated convection. To the E, an upper-
level low centered N of eastern Cuba is inducing
convection across the northern Caribbean waters N of 18N between
70W-80W affecting Cuba, Hispaniola and Jamaica. The proximity of
a tropical wave currently along 60W is supporting isolated
convection across the Lesser Antilles mainly E of 63W.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin except S of 14N between 70W-74W where fresh to strong
winds will pulse every evening. Expect during the next 24 hours
for the tropical wave to enter the eastern Caribbean with
convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.


Scattered moderate convection prevails across the island induced
by an upper-level low currently centered N of eastern Cuba.
Expect for this feature to prevail nearly stationary during the
next 24 hours.


Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer
to the section above for details. The basin is dominated by a
surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1036 mb high centered
near 41N37W. 

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