AXNT20 KNHC 242347
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
747 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is over the Central Atlc with an axis from 15N to
06N along 35W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is
embedded in a moist environment with 700 mb troughing evident in
model fields between 31W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 05N to 13N between 32W and 37W.
A tropical wave is nearing the Lesser Antilles with an axis from
17N to 10N along 50W. This wave is embedded in a moderately moist
environment with 700 mb troughing evident in model fields between
64W and 72W. Moderate subsidence is occurring over the wave from
ridging to the west of the wave, inhibiting convection along the
wave at this time.
The Monsoon Trough axis extends from the African coast near 10N15W
to 08N32W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N38W to 12N56W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between the African coast
and 32W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N to 23N between
40W and 50W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 mb area of high pressure is centered over Mississippi and
dominates the Gulf of Mexico with generally fair weather and
mainly moderate northeast to east winds. Seas of 2 to 4 ft
currently cover the majority of the Gulf waters. Through the
middle of the week, strong high pressure will build south across
the eastern United States. This will increase winds over the
eastern Gulf to 20 to 25 kt by Wednesday. Seas across portions of the
southeastern Gulf will increase to 6 to 8 ft, with seas to 10 ft
possible over the Straits of Florida, particularly along the Gulf
Stream. Dry conditions are expected to continue through this time
A shear line continues to extend from the eastern tip of Cuba to
near 16N83W. Northeast winds to around 20 kt are north of this
line, with 10 kt northeasterly winds south of this line. Speed
convergence along this line combined with deep moisture supports
Scattered thunderstorms from 13N to 18N between 76W and 85W.
Mainly moderate trade winds cover the remainder of the Caribbean.
Over the next 24 hours the shear line will prevail over the same
location with showers and thunderstorms. A tropical wave will
cross the Lesser Antilles tonight and enter the Eastern Caribbean
on Tuesday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
The combination of an upper trough over the Bahamas and a
stationary front to the NW of the islands supports scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Little change is expected over the next
24 hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible through Tuesday as
these storms may redevelop over the same locations.
Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the tropical waves section above for details. A surface ridge
extends across the western Atlantic west of 65W anchored by a 1026
mb high centered over Mississippi. An upper trough over the
western Atlc supports a stationary front from 31N58W to 25N66W to
the eastern tip of Cuba near 20N75W. A pre-frontal trough extends
from 29N59W to 19N66W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90
nm of either side of the front and trough axis. Northeast winds
around 20 kt prevail within 120 nm NW of the front. A surface
trough is over the central Atlc with an axis from 18N48W to 12N48W
and is interacting with an upper trough to support clusters of
moderate convection from 14N to 21N between 43W and 48W. High
pressure centered near 35N40W dominates the subtropical Atlc
between 25W and 50W. Low pressure north of the area over the
eastern Atlc supports scattered thunderstorms and a broad area of
northerly winds of 20 to 25 kt north of 26N between 22W and 35W.
Large swell is currently covering this same area. Over the next 24
hours a re- enforcing front will begin to cross the western Atlc
with fresh to strong winds developing behind the front Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The stationary front will continue to
persist, before the re-enforcing cold front merges with it by
Wednesday. The surface trough supporting convection over the
central Atlc will move NW with convection.
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