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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 282349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W AND 
CONTINUES TO 04N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 
04N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 03N51W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FROM 02N-09N W OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM A 1014 MB LOW IN SOUTH CAROLINA 
ACROSS PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 28N90W 24N94W TO 19N96W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CONTINUES 
TO PROVIDE S-SE FLOW OF 5-15 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS 
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ITS VICINITY AS WELL AS A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE 
FRONT AND WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF IT. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
DOMINATE N OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT 
EASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 
BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING. NO MAJOR CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED 
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND DISSIPATES 
OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WED MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS JUST N OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. AN OVERALL STABLE 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONSISTING OF RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE 
CONTINUES OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS...THUS SUPPORTING CLEAR 
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT 
COASTAL WATERS. INTERMITTENT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO 
PREVAIL OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. 

HISPANIOLA...                   

CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ON THE W ATLC PREVAIL ACROSS THE 
ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TUE 
NIGHT/WED MORNING. RIDGING WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL 
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A BROAD AND ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A 1006 MB 
LOW NEAR 33N34W TO 24N37W 18N52W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE W AND E OF THE FRONT. 
A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER W ATLC WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO 
DRIFT E-SE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALLOWING FOR A NEW COLD FRONT 
TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC ON TUE MORNING. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Sunday, 28-Dec-2014 23:50:09 UTC