Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 252341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 21.6N 45.5W at 25/2100 UTC
or about 960 nm ENE of the Leeward Islands moving NW at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is from 21N-24N between 44W-46W.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 19N-27N between
40W-52W. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under the AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical wave extends from 10N20W to 19N20W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave emerged off the African coast last evening and continues
to exhibit a low-level cyclonic circulation focused in the
vicinity of a 1008 mb low along the wave axis near 14N. Isolated
moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 11W-17W.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 13N20W to 07N32W to 09N42W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 12N47W to 11N60W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 27W-35W.


An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the
Tennessee River valley near 36N84W providing much of the Gulf
basin with E-SE flow aloft. At the surface...the upper level
ridging supports a ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered
across northern Georgia with axis extending W-SW to southern Texas
near Corpus Christi. Generally gentle to moderate NE to E winds
are noted at this time and are expected to persist through
Saturday. Otherwise...afternoon convection is ongoing across the
SE and north-central portions of the basin with scattered showers
and tstms occurring S of 27N E of 89W...and N of 25N between
89W-95W. Another area of isolated showers and tstms is noted
across the SW Gulf waters in association with a weak surface
trough analyzed from 22N94W to 18N94W.

The primary concern for the Caribbean is a broad area of low
pressure NW of Hispaniola this evening. As the area tracks W-NW
during the next 24-36 hours...plenty of precipitation is expected
across Hispaniola...the Windward Passage...portions of eastern
Cuba with localized flooding and mud slides possible.
Otherwise...convection associated with the low is enhanced due to
an upper level anticyclonic circulation centered over the north-
central Caribbean near 18N70W. Farther west...drier air is noted
on water vapor imagery with most of the western Caribbean
experiencing clear skies and fair weather this evening. Only a few
isolated showers and tstms are occurring W of 86W...including the
Gulf of Honduras and inland portions of Belize...Guatemala...and
the Yucatan peninsula. Although the trades are disrupted slightly
due to the low pressure area mentioned above...overall E to NE
winds remain within moderate to occasional fresh breeze levels S
of 16N between 65W-76W.

Scattered showers and tstms associated with the broad low
pressure area NW of the island are expected to persist through the
overnight period into Friday as the low moves W-NW during the next
24-36 hours. Gusty winds...heavy rainfall...flash flooding...and
mud slides are possible across the island through Saturday.

Aside from Tropical Storm Gaston...a 1008 mb low is centered N of
Hispaniola near 21N72W moving W-NW at 15-20 kt. Low-level
streamline analysis indicates surface troughing extending from N
of Bermuda through the remnant low of Fiona near 29N69W to the
broad area of low pressure across the central Caribbean Sea.
Visible satellite imagery shows an exposed low-level circulation
center with most of the active convection noted across
Hispaniola...and the adjacent coastal waters around Hispaniola and
Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-24N between
65W-70W...and from 17N-21N between 70W-78W. In addition...an
upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery with axis
extending from 35N65W W-SW to 30N79W. This troughing supports a
dissipating stationary front analyzed from 32N66W SW into a 1014
mb low...the remnants of Fiona...to 28N71W. Scattered showers and
tstms are occurring N of 27N between 58W and the frontal boundary
to the west. Furthermore...a surface trough is analyzed from
25N78W to 28N75W and is providing focus for scattered showers and
tstms generally N of 24N W of 73W...including inland portions of
the southern Florida peninsula. Farther east...an upper level low
is centered over the central Atlc near 23N53W and supports a
surface trough analyzed from 26N56W to 31N52W. Within the eastern
periphery of the upper level low...maximum upper level diffluence
is noted on water vapor imagery supporting a portion of the
convection NW of Gaston. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern
Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a pair
of 1024 mb highs...one centered near 33N39W and the other centered
near 38N25W.

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Page last modified: Thursday, 25-Aug-2016 23:41:43 UTC