Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 210003

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N15W to 
08N18W to 07N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 07N21W to 06N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 0N to 10N E of 36W. 



A stationary front continues to weaken from the Straits of Florida
SW to the southern-central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W to the Bay
of Campeche near 18N94W. Deep layer dry air prevails across the
basin as indicated by CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery,
which only allows for isolated showers within 75 nm either side of
the front. Moderate northerlies are in the northern vicinity of
the front while lighter easterlies to northeasterlies are
elsewhere across the Gulf N of the front. Broken to overcast skies
are in the NW Gulf associated with the remnants of a former
surface trough. Radar data show isolated showers in that region. A
surface trough, remnant of the front will develop later tonight. 
This trough will evolve to a center of low pressure over the NE 
basin Tuesday evening, which will support showers and tstms in the
region as well as inland northern Florida.


CIRA LPW and GOES-16 water vapor imagery show deep layered dry 
air across the basin, except for the northern-central Caribbean
where diffluent flow in the NE periphery of a ridge continue to
support scattered showers and tstms. These showers cover the
regions of the Windward Passage, Hispaniola and southern adjacent
waters to 16N. Isolated showers are across Puerto Rico and
Jamaica as well as the SE Caribbean, including the southern
Windward Islands. In the central basin, just S of Jamaica, a 1008
mb low lacking convection is centered near 15N76W. The low will
weaken in to a trough that will continue to move W the next two
days. Showers across the north-central basin will shift towards 
the NE Caribbean tonight as the upper ridge moves E along 
northern S America.


Scattered to isolated showers prevail across the island and 
adjacent waters continuing through Tuesday morning. These showers will
shift towards the NE Caribbean tonight as the upper ridge that
supports it moves E along northern S America.


A cold front extends from 30N64W SW to 26N75W where it transitions
to a dissipating stationary front that continues to the Florida
Straits into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of
the front, a surface trough extends from 25N64W to northern
Dominican Republic supporting scattered to isolated showers S of
26N between 57W and 70W. A second cold front extends from 31N30W
to 24N40W to 19N50W supporting scattered showers N of 24N between
22W and 39W. Otherwise, high pressure centered near 32N49W 
dominates the remainder central Atlantic.

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Nov-2017 00:03:41 UTC